2026-08-13
Daily Report
2026-08-13
Risk-on, but selective: QQQ +1.16% and SPY +0.70% outpaced IWM +0.26% and DIA +0.14%, while cloud/software and technology hardware dominated. Full-universe breadth remained constructive at 65% above the 50-day and 75% above the 200-day average, but small-cap and cyclical lag kept this from being a uniform beta rally.
SPY +0.70% QQQ +1.16% 15 qualifying setups
Market Signal
RISK ON
Score 0.30
Generated
2026-08-13 20:55
Static build timestamp
Leaders
Communication Svcs
Best-performing sector today
Lagging
Materials
Weakest sector on the tape
Overview
Index & Macro Snapshot
Core benchmarks, volatility, and curve shape for the session.
S&P 500
$777.88
+0.70% today · +14.47% YTD
Nasdaq 100
$732.07
+1.16% today · +19.68% YTD
Russell 2000
$303.50
+0.26% today · +22.50% YTD
Dow Jones
$537.91
+0.14% today · +12.09% YTD
VIX
14.63
-3.43% over 5d
10Y Treasury
4.64%
Long-end benchmark
2Y Treasury
3.71%
Policy-sensitive front end
2s/10s Curve
+94bps
Normal / steepening
Tape Read
What's Moving Markets Today
Daily strategist letter and the cross-sector spreads behind today's tape.
Strategist Letter · 2026-08-13
Morning Note
Close read: the market accepted duration risk, but did so selectively. QQQ +1.16% and cloud/software leadership were reinforced by VIX 14.63, TLT +0.58%, HYG +0.23%, UUP -0.07%, and 197 new highs versus 29 lows across 1,498 measured names. Yet IWM trailed SPY by 0.44 percentage point and Staples beat Discretionary. The 15 setups were not excessively concentrated: Health Care led at 26.7%, followed by Technology and Consumer Cyclical at 20% each. Maintain exposure to confirmed software, hardware, HR-services, payments, and refining leaders, but require follow-through rather than chase the first vertical day. Falsification: QQQ/IGV gains fail to hold while IWM remains weak, credit rolls over, or VIX rises despite higher indices.
Cyclicals vs Defensives
mixed
Cyclicals (+0.51%) are lagging Defensives (+0.73%) by 0.22pp.
Mixed leadership — the tape can't pick a regime.
Discretionary vs Staples
risk-off
XLY +0.48% vs XLP +1.08% (spread -0.60pp).
Consumer rotating defensive — Staples bid is a late-cycle warning.
Semis vs Software (AI capex theme)
risk-off
SMH +0.73% vs IGV +3.10% — spread -2.37pp.
Software is leading semis — AI monetisation narrative dominating, or semis exhaustion.
Energy vs Utilities
neutral
XLE +0.05% vs XLU +0.46% — spread -0.41pp.
No clear inflation impulse from the energy/utilities pair.
Small caps vs Large caps (IWM vs SPY)
risk-off
IWM +0.26% vs SPY +0.70% — spread -0.44pp.
Mega-caps doing the lifting — narrow tape, breadth divergence is a yellow flag.
Stocks vs Bonds (SPY vs TLT)
risk-on
SPY +0.70% AND TLT +0.58% — both bid.
Liquidity tape — stocks and bonds rallying together signals easing financial conditions.
Dollar vs Equities
risk-on
UUP -0.07% / SPY +0.70%.
Dollar weakness with equities up = risk-on, EM and commodities should follow.
Gold vs Equities
risk-on
GLD -1.47% / SPY +0.70%.
Gold sold while equities rally — risk-on rotation out of safe-haven.
Growth vs Value (factors)
neutral
VUG +0.97% vs VLUE +1.31% — spread -0.34pp.
Growth/Value roughly tied — no factor regime signal.
Cross-Sector Synthesis
The risk-on read is supported by lower volatility, firm credit, stocks and bonds rising together, a softer dollar, and 197 new highs versus 29 lows. It is qualified by weak relative small caps, Staples beating Discretionary by 0.60 percentage point, and software beating semiconductors by 2.37 points. The investable message is selective growth leadership with healthy trend breadth, not blanket cyclical acceleration.
Industry Rotation
Rotation was concentrated but not confined to megacap technology. Hardware +9.30%, HR services +4.57%, application software +4.41%, payments +3.75%, and refiners +3.45% led. HR services had 90% of constituents above both key moving averages; refiners had 88.9% above the 50-day and 100% above the 200-day, making those the strongest non-software confirmation pockets.
Explore the full industry view →
Moving-Average Events
Industry golden crosses: Specialty Stores, Specialized Consumer Services, and Home Furnishings. Across 1,496 analyzable constituents, 40 printed a new golden cross versus 12 death crosses over five sessions. The 3.3-to-1 positive skew supports the broader trend, while the lack of an industry RRG rotation breakout argues against calling a new regime.
News Flow
Catalysts driving the tape
106 relevant headlines across 5 sources, theme-tagged.
Headlines grouped by what's actually moving the market: geopolitics, Fed/macro, AI/tech, earnings, energy, regulation. Each headline is tagged to the sectors it most likely impacts. Urgency markers (!) indicate market-moving signals.
Geopolitics
12
Fed / Macro
6
AI / Tech
12
Earnings
12
Energy / Oil
2
China / Trade
6
Healthcare
6
CNBC Health Care Industrials Cons. Discretionary
Crypto
10
Mergers & Acquisitions
1
Regulation
2
Layoffs / Labor
3
CNBC Technology Industrials Communication Svcs
Narrative
Sector Commentary
Active Codex task commentary grounded in the market inputs for this session.
Risk-on, but selective: QQQ +1.16% and SPY +0.70% outpaced IWM +0.26% and DIA +0.14%, while cloud/software and technology hardware dominated. Full-universe breadth remained constructive at 65% above the 50-day and 75% above the 200-day average, but small-cap and cyclical lag kept this from being a uniform beta rally.
Index leadership +1.2%
QQQ led at +1.16%, followed by SPY +0.70%; IWM +0.26% and DIA +0.14% lagged. The session rewarded growth duration and large-cap exposure more than broad domestic cyclicality.
Sector breadth +2.1%
Communication Services led sectors at +2.07%, with Real Estate +1.42%, Staples +1.08%, and Technology +1.01% also firm. Materials lagged at -0.51%; Health Care and Industrials were roughly flat.
Software and cloud +5.7%
WCLD +5.65%, IGV +3.10%, and HACK +2.55% made software the cleanest thematic leadership. WCLD is now +11.74% over five days, so follow-through and breadth matter more than another one-day surge.
Factors and regime +1.3%
Value led the tracked factor set at +1.31%, ahead of High Beta +1.01% and Growth +0.97%; Momentum was the laggard at +0.41%. The up tape broadened across styles even though index leadership remained Nasdaq-heavy.
Industry leadership +9.3%
Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals +9.30%, Human Resource & Employment Services +4.57%, Application Software +4.41%, and Payments +3.75% led. The HR-services move had 90% of constituents above both the 50-day and 200-day averages.
Industry dispersion -3.5%
Aluminum -3.51%, Electronic Components -3.49%, Trading Companies & Distributors -2.64%, Gold -2.50%, and Communications Equipment -2.06% lagged. The gap against software and hardware shows selective appetite rather than indiscriminate risk taking.
Scanner quality +0.0%
The repaired S&P 1500 scan found 15 Stage 2 setups, led by CRSR, QNST, and HZO. Coverage was broad: 1,505 of 1,506 constituents had dated price caches and 1,496 had at least 220 sessions; the setup list spanned seven sectors, led by four Health Care names.
Sector Breadth
Communication Svcs
+2.07%
Real Estate
+1.42%
Cons. Staples
+1.08%
Technology
+1.01%
Financials
+0.59%
Cons. Discretionary
+0.48%
Utilities
+0.46%
Energy
+0.05%
Health Care
-0.04%
Industrials
-0.05%
Materials
-0.51%
Top Movers
WDAY
WDAY
+17.78%
ZS
ZS
+6.12%
DDOG
DDOG
+4.70%
PLTR
PLTR
+4.66%
CRM
CRM
+4.16%
CSCO
CSCO
-8.40%
ANET
ANET
-3.27%
MCK
MCK
-2.51%
VRTX
VRTX
-1.77%
SYK
SYK
-1.76%
Scan Output
Full Breakout Table
Composite score combines relative strength, base quality, trend structure, and stage confirmation.
# Ticker Name Sector Score RS Base Trend Stage 2 Price 52W High vs High Avg Vol Vol/Avg
1 CRSR Corsair Gaming, Inc. Technology
79.0
97.1 43.3 100.0 ✓ $13.45 $14.35 -6.3% 2.1M 1.87x
2 QNST QuinStreet, Inc. Communication Services
78.5
90.0 50.0 100.0 ✓ $20.74 $22.02 -5.8% 830K 2.61x
3 HZO MarineMax, Inc. Consumer Cyclical
77.4
87.3 50.0 100.0 ✓ $52.04 $52.46 -0.8% 492K 4.67x
4 LFST LifeStance Health Group, Inc. Healthcare
76.6
100.0 33.1 100.0 ✓ $12.22 $12.23 -0.1% 3.9M 1.66x
5 TWLO Twilio Inc. Technology
73.4
89.8 35.8 100.0 ✓ $249.42 $255.95 -2.6% 2.3M 1.72x
6 INVX Innovex International, Inc. Energy
73.2
69.9 57.7 100.0 ✓ $30.78 $31.63 -2.7% 554K 2.80x
7 HALO Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. Healthcare
72.3
74.5 50.0 100.0 ✓ $100.67 $103.12 -2.4% 2.1M 2.03x
8 ABNB ★ 4d Airbnb, Inc. Consumer Cyclical
70.6
70.1 50.0 100.0 ✓ $185.13 $185.13 +0.0% 4.2M 2.11x
9 FA First Advantage Corporation Industrials
70.4
69.7 50.0 100.0 ✓ $22.20 $24.12 -8.0% 2.2M 2.08x
10 ARWR Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Healthcare
69.8
100.0 13.8 100.0 ✓ $85.59 $89.59 -4.5% 2.3M 0.44x
11 EAT Brinker International, Inc. Consumer Cyclical
69.3
93.0 20.2 100.0 ✓ $238.61 $245.89 -3.0% 1.1M 1.40x
12 RHP Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. Real Estate
68.1
59.3 55.5 100.0 ✓ $124.70 $135.99 -8.3% 744K 2.45x
13 SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. Technology
66.3
62.7 46.5 100.0 ✓ $218.30 $220.34 -0.9% 399K 0.51x
14 SPHR Sphere Entertainment Co. Communication Services
66.1
100.0 3.3 100.0 ✓ $176.38 $176.38 +0.0% 753K 1.17x
15 ROIV Roivant Sciences Ltd. Healthcare
65.7
94.7 7.9 100.0 ✓ $36.28 $36.81 -1.4% 5.6M 1.11x