Strategist Letter · 2026-06-17
Morning Note
The tape is trading risk on (composite score +0.60), with SPY -1.25%, QQQ -1.01% and IWM -0.75% on the session. Universe breadth sits at 55% above 50-day and 61% above 200-day, and VIX prints 18.44 (-17.0% over five sessions). At the GICS sub-industry level, leadership concentrated in Biotechnology (+2.79%), Investment Banking & Brokerage (+2.43%), Semiconductor Materials & Equipment (+1.43%), Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals (+1.15%). On the laggard side, Cargo Ground Transportation -6.05% headed the weak list. No industries crossed into the Leading RRG quadrant in the last five sessions. Cross-asset color: the dollar (UUP) +0.90%; long bonds (TLT) +0.16%; high yield (HYG) -0.37% — credit stress tightening; crude (USO) -1.07%; gold (GLD) -2.27%; bitcoin (BITO) -2.13%. The 2s10s curve sits at +82bps. Risks worth tracking: and 200-day breaks in Construction Materials, Consumer Finance, Broadcasting; the breadth tape shows 10 new stock-level golden crosses against 5 death crosses. Catalysts in the wires: on geopolitics: 'Dow closes 500 points lower as Warsh’s first Fed meeting sets off surge in bond yields: Live updates' [CNBC]; on Fed / macro: 'Dow closes 500 points lower as Warsh’s first Fed meeting sets off surge in bond yields: Live updates' [CNBC]; on AI / tech: 'Bitcoin trapped in Ichimoku cloud at $65K: Live levels' [Investing.com Stocks]; on energy: 'From panic to pricing in: Are markets past 'peak fear and sell-off' despite oil price surge?' [CNBC]. Positioning takeaway: lean into Industrials pockets where breadth is improving and trim exposure in Communication Svcs until 200-day support is reclaimed.
Cross-Sector Linkages
What the spreads are telling us
8 active linkages today.
Each card shows a classic cross-sector or cross-asset spread, today's reading, and the positioning takeaway. Risk-on / risk-off / mixed badges aggregate into the regime read.
Cyclicals vs Defensives
risk-on
Cyclicals (-0.89%) are leading Defensives (-1.88%) by 1.00pp.
Risk appetite firm — the tape is paying for growth, leverage and operating cycle exposure.
Discretionary vs Staples
mixed
XLY -2.51% vs XLP -2.23% (spread -0.28pp).
Consumer mixed — no clear signal on household risk appetite.
Semis vs Software (AI capex theme)
risk-on
SMH +1.29% vs IGV -2.42% — spread +3.71pp.
Hardware/infrastructure leg of AI is bid — capex theme intact, hyperscaler spend cycle on.
Small caps vs Large caps (IWM vs SPY)
risk-on
IWM -0.75% vs SPY -1.25% — spread +0.50pp.
Rally is broadening — small caps participating; risk-on with breadth confirmation.
Stocks vs Bonds (SPY vs TLT)
neutral
SPY -1.25% / TLT +0.16% — inverse.
Classic stocks/bonds correlation working — risk-on means TLT down, risk-off means TLT up.
Dollar vs Equities
risk-off
UUP +0.90% / SPY -1.25%.
Dollar bid with equities down = classic flight-to-quality, USD safe-haven.
Gold vs Equities
risk-off
GLD -2.27% / SPY -1.25%.
Gold and equities both off — broad de-leveraging.
Momentum vs Min Vol
risk-on
MTUM +0.68% vs USMV -1.32% — spread +2.00pp.
Trend-followers in control — leadership names extend, junk reflation often follows.
Regime
Risk-On
Composite +40.5 (-100..+100)
VIX +0.39
Curve +0.82
Credit +0.17
Breadth +0.28
Momentum +1.00
Dollar -0.23
VIX (Vol Regime)
18.44
5d Δ -17.0% · Stable
Breadth (S&P 1500)
55% · 61%
Above 50d / above 200d
52w highs: 109 · 52w lows: 39
Yield Curve · 2s10s
+82bps
10Y 4.46% · 2Y 3.65%
Steepening
Equity Markets
Sector Heatmap
Color intensity = magnitude of 1d move. YTD shown beneath.
Where the money is flowing today across the 11 GICS sectors. Green = leadership, red = laggards. The intensity of the color tracks the magnitude of the day's move.
Industrials
-0.14%
YTD +14.0%
Technology
-0.34%
YTD +28.9%
Financials
-0.55%
YTD -1.1%
Materials
-1.33%
YTD +13.3%
Utilities
-1.33%
YTD +3.7%
Health Care
-1.46%
YTD -2.7%
Cons. Staples
-2.23%
YTD +8.3%
Real Estate
-2.51%
YTD +9.6%
Cons. Discretionary
-2.51%
YTD -2.2%
Communication Svcs
-2.78%
YTD -6.3%
Intermarket
Cross-Asset Tape
Equities · rates / credit · commodities · FX / crypto.
A single tape across the major asset classes. Use this to read regime: equities up + dollar down + bonds up + credit tightening = classic risk-on; the inverse is risk-off.
| Symbol | | 1d | 5d | MTD | YTD |
|---|
| SPY |
S&P 500 |
-1.25% |
— |
— |
+8.76% |
| QQQ |
Nasdaq 100 |
-1.01% |
— |
— |
+17.99% |
| IWM |
Russell 2k |
-0.75% |
— |
— |
+17.01% |
| DIA |
Dow Jones |
-0.99% |
— |
— |
+7.26% |
| EFA |
Dev ex-US |
-0.51% |
+3.79% |
+0.94% |
+8.64% |
| EEM |
EM |
-0.12% |
+6.58% |
-1.66% |
+22.54% |
| FXI |
China |
-2.63% |
-2.44% |
-4.07% |
-14.86% |
| Symbol | | 1d | 5d | MTD | YTD |
|---|
| TLT |
20+y UST |
+0.16% |
+1.71% |
+1.01% |
+1.07% |
| IEF |
7-10y UST |
-0.53% |
+0.35% |
-0.16% |
-0.55% |
| LQD |
Inv Grade |
-0.32% |
+0.56% |
-0.15% |
+0.62% |
| HYG |
High Yield |
-0.37% |
+0.33% |
-0.14% |
+1.34% |
| JNK |
Junk |
-0.38% |
+0.34% |
-0.11% |
+1.54% |
| Symbol | | 1d | 5d | MTD | YTD |
|---|
| GLD |
Gold |
-2.27% |
+3.74% |
-5.51% |
-2.43% |
| SLV |
Silver |
-4.39% |
+5.12% |
-10.43% |
-7.82% |
| USO |
Crude |
-1.07% |
-14.94% |
-15.70% |
+65.65% |
| UNG |
Nat Gas |
-1.62% |
+0.26% |
+0.26% |
-4.06% |
| DBA |
Agriculture |
+0.68% |
+1.94% |
-1.47% |
+5.01% |
| Symbol | | 1d | 5d | MTD | YTD |
|---|
| UUP |
US Dollar |
+0.90% |
+0.46% |
+1.51% |
+3.95% |
| FXE |
Euro |
-1.00% |
-0.47% |
-1.19% |
-1.59% |
| FXY |
Yen |
-0.17% |
-0.14% |
-0.73% |
-2.56% |
| BITO |
Bitcoin |
-2.13% |
+3.56% |
-10.37% |
-29.57% |
Sub-Sectors
Industry Rotation Map (RRG)
Equal-weighted GICS industry indices vs SPY.
Full view →
Industries in the upper-right (Leading) quadrant are outperforming SPY with positive momentum — that's where the money is. Industries in Improving (top-left) often deliver the best forward returns. The trail shows where they came from over the last ~3 weeks.
Today's industry leaders
| Industry | | 1d | 5d | YTD | Quad |
|---|
| Biotechnology |
Health Care |
+2.79% |
+8.58% |
+17.36% |
N/A |
| Investment Banking & Brokerage |
Financials |
+2.43% |
+10.62% |
+12.07% |
N/A |
| Semiconductor Materials & Equipment |
Information Technology |
+1.43% |
+17.04% |
+95.58% |
N/A |
| Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals |
Materials |
+1.15% |
+2.81% |
+14.87% |
N/A |
| Electrical Components & Equipment |
Industrials |
+0.92% |
+11.86% |
+68.54% |
N/A |
| Construction & Engineering |
Industrials |
+0.80% |
+11.24% |
+57.83% |
N/A |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment |
Industrials |
+0.58% |
+9.68% |
+35.75% |
N/A |
| Aerospace & Defense |
Industrials |
+0.52% |
+5.25% |
-3.34% |
N/A |
Today's industry laggards
| Cargo Ground Transportation |
Industrials |
-6.05% |
-7.72% |
+41.62% |
N/A |
| Automotive Retail |
Consumer Discretionary |
-5.11% |
-3.70% |
-7.06% |
N/A |
| Office REITs |
Real Estate |
-4.43% |
-5.08% |
+0.01% |
N/A |
| IT Consulting & Other Services |
Information Technology |
-4.42% |
-5.78% |
-34.16% |
N/A |
| Personal Care Products |
Consumer Staples |
-4.01% |
+0.02% |
-9.34% |
N/A |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment |
Consumer Discretionary |
-3.93% |
-7.21% |
+15.94% |
N/A |
| Financial Exchanges & Data |
Financials |
-3.74% |
-4.22% |
-10.26% |
N/A |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods |
Consumer Discretionary |
-3.52% |
+2.08% |
-5.77% |
N/A |
| Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail |
Consumer Staples |
-3.47% |
-1.68% |
+0.39% |
N/A |
| Research & Consulting Services |
Industrials |
-3.47% |
-3.91% |
-20.02% |
N/A |
| Diversified Support Services |
Industrials |
-3.43% |
-3.59% |
+5.63% |
N/A |
| Home Improvement Retail |
Consumer Discretionary |
-3.37% |
+1.53% |
-11.59% |
N/A |
| Health Care Technology |
Health Care |
-3.36% |
-3.14% |
-22.64% |
N/A |
| Oil & Gas Equipment & Services |
Energy |
-3.32% |
-7.76% |
+24.28% |
N/A |
| Rail Transportation |
Industrials |
-3.20% |
-2.58% |
+14.73% |
N/A |
| Broadline Retail |
Consumer Discretionary |
-3.17% |
+2.14% |
+11.20% |
N/A |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services |
Industrials |
-3.14% |
-4.71% |
-33.83% |
N/A |
| Industrial REITs |
Real Estate |
-3.14% |
-2.74% |
+9.04% |
N/A |
| Automobile Manufacturers |
Consumer Discretionary |
-3.00% |
+0.28% |
-1.10% |
N/A |
| Health Care Equipment |
Health Care |
-2.85% |
-2.80% |
-14.93% |
N/A |
Factors & Style
Factor Tape
What's working in cross-section.
Momentum > Value indicates trend-followers winning. Min Vol/Quality outperforming = defensive rotation. High Beta > Low Beta = risk appetite returning.
Momentum
+0.68%
5d +7.78% · QTD +34.00% · YTD +30.15%
Value
-1.12%
5d +3.42% · QTD +36.17% · YTD +42.07%
Growth
-1.36%
5d +2.36% · QTD +16.33% · YTD +5.76%
Quality
-1.52%
5d +1.18% · QTD +11.44% · YTD +8.08%
Min Vol
-1.32%
5d -0.30% · QTD +2.45% · YTD +1.79%
Size
-1.59%
5d +1.02% · QTD +9.43% · YTD +7.83%
High Beta
-0.67%
5d +8.00% · QTD +28.76% · YTD +27.02%
Low Vol
-1.60%
5d -0.78% · QTD +0.35% · YTD +3.90%
Market Internals
Breadth, Highs/Lows, Cross Events
Health checks for the underlying tape.
Breadth and 52-week-extreme counts reveal whether the rally is broad or narrow. Cross-event counts show where regime change is brewing — clusters of golden crosses signal a bottom forming, death-cross clusters warn of distribution.
52-week highs
109
Near highs (within 1%): 5
PNW · ONTO · SPG · KIM · JPM · GE · VOYA · IEX
52-week lows
39
Near lows (within 1%): 6
PEGA · EXE · FIS · IT · BR · GWRE · FISV · ULTA
Stock golden crosses
10
Death crosses: 5
AMT · FSLR · GE · NWSA · SW · WSM · MP · TMHC
Stock 200d reclaims
54
Lost 200d: 43
A · AMCR · AXP · AMP · BALL · XYZ · BA · CCL
Quant Pulse
Crowdedness & Leadership
How concentrated is today's leadership?
High crowdedness + concentrated sector exposure = vulnerable to mean reversion. Diverse leadership across sectors = healthier trend.
Top sector in breakouts
Technology
73.3% of qualifying setups
Sector concentration (HHI)
5556
< 1500 = diverse · 1500-2500 = moderate · > 2500 = concentrated
Persistent leaders (3+ days)
12
Names locked in the top 15 for ≥3 sessions
What's next
Catalysts ahead
Macro releases and events on the runway over the next several sessions.
Jun 17
CPI y/y
Forecast: 3.0% | Prior: 2.8%
Jun 17
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Forecast: | Prior:
Jun 17
Core Retail Sales m/m
Forecast: 0.6% | Prior: 0.7%
Jun 17
Retail Sales m/m
Forecast: 0.5% | Prior: 0.5%
Jun 17
President Trump Speaks
Forecast: | Prior:
Jun 17
Federal Funds Rate
Forecast: 3.75% | Prior: 3.75%
Jun 17
FOMC Economic Projections
Forecast: | Prior:
Jun 17
FOMC Statement
Forecast: | Prior:
Jun 17
FOMC Press Conference
Forecast: | Prior:
Jun 17
GDP q/q
Forecast: 0.8% | Prior: 0.2%
Jun 18
Claimant Count Change
Forecast: 25.8K | Prior: 26.5K
Jun 18
Average Earnings Index 3m/y
Forecast: 4.0% | Prior: 4.1%
Jun 18
SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
Forecast: | Prior:
Jun 18
SNB Policy Rate
Forecast: 0.00% | Prior: 0.00%
