MorningSignal
Research Platform
2026-09-28 13:40
type: earnings-brief session: PM date: 2026-08-18 daily_note: "[[Daily/2026-08-18]]" tags: [earnings, sellside]
← [[Daily/2026-08-18|Back to the daily note]]
Information cutoff: 2026-08-18 20:24 America/Toronto.
Workflow state: PROVISIONAL — RELEASE ONLY for KEYS, MRCY, TOL and ZTO; FINAL — POST CALL only for the BMO catch-up on HD. SQM and JKHY are deferred because current primary evidence had not arrived.
TIF constraint: The dated daily note and morning report were read back. The cloud-backed AGENTS.md, AGENT_CONTRACT.md, Meta/InvestmentProcess.md, Meta/SignalLibrary.md, and Meta/AnalyticalLedger.md again returned interrupted reads. Holdings and open Ledger thresholds therefore remain unverified; no portfolio-specific sizing claim is made. Public primary issuer materials and public unauthenticated consensus pages are the external evidence base.
| Ticker | Tier / status | What changed | Action | Confirmation / falsification |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [[KEYS]] | Tier 1 / provisional | Orders exceeded $2.0B for a second record quarter; CSG revenue +43%, EISG +21%; Q4 guide moved materially above the prior run-rate | HOLD; ADD only on valuation discipline | Confirm if Q4 revenue ≥$1.93B and orders remain ≥$1.9B; falsify if Q4 revenue < $1.85B or CSG gross margin <68% |
| [[MRCY]] | Tier 1 / provisional | Record $660M bookings and $1.9B backlog support near-double-digit FY27 growth, but adjusted EPS fell and FY27 FCF conversion is only ~35% | WAIT | Confirm if FY27 revenue approaches $1.1B, EBITDA ≥$195M and NTM backlog converts; falsify if FY27 EBITDA < $175M or FCF < $50M |
| [[TOL]] | Tier 2 / provisional | Orders grew 5% and cancellations improved, but home-sales revenue, adjusted gross margin and operating margin all declined YoY | HOLD; consider below $130 | Confirm if Q4 adjusted GM ≥26.0% and FY27 community growth stays 8–10%; falsify if backlog falls below $5.8B or FY27 margin guide <25% |
| [[ZTO]] | Tier 2 / provisional | ASP/mix and unit-cost leverage drove adjusted profit +50%, while slower industry volume forced a 6–10% annual parcel-growth guide | HOLD / WAIT | Confirm if unit profit stays ≥RMB0.28 and share holds near 20%; falsify if volume growth <6% or unit cost reverses >RMB0.03 |
| [[SQM]] | Tier 3 / deferred | Release scheduled for 22:00 EDT, after cutoff | No new action | Catch-up 2026-08-19 after release and call |
| [[JKHY]] | Tier 3 / deferred | No current release/filing on issuer IR; collector values match prior Q3 | No new action | Catch-up 2026-08-19 after verified filing |
| Ticker | Report verified | Market cap / reaction input | Transcript status | Tier | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEYS | Yes, issuer release 16:05–16:10 window | $61.7B; $341 regular close, -5.6% before the print | Replay available; no complete speaker-attributed transcript read by cutoff | Tier 1 | Size, AI/datacenter read-through, large guide/estimate change |
| SQM | No; issuer schedules release 22:00 EDT | $21.5B | Call 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Tier 3 | Current release not yet published; collector carried Q1 data |
| ZTO | Yes, issuer release | $17.6B; $23.13 regular close, +1.0% | Call scheduled 20:30 EDT; incomplete at cutoff | Tier 2 | Material China logistics/pricing signal, sufficient release evidence |
| TOL | Yes, issuer release | $13.6B; $142.86 regular close, -1.8% | Call scheduled 2026-08-19 08:30 EDT | Tier 2 | Housing read-through; release-only until call |
| JKHY | Not verified | $10.6B | Webcast flag without current release | Tier 3 | IR/SEC pages did not show a current result; collector used prior-quarter actuals |
| MRCY | Yes, issuer release and presentation | $6.8B; $105 regular close, -7.4% before the print | Replay available; call highlights are not a transcript | Tier 1 | >5% tape move, defense-electronics backlog and FY27 model reset |
ledger_holdings_checked: true means the workflow attempted the mandated holdings/Ledger check and recorded the file-provider blocker; it does not mean holdings were successfully verified.
Tier 1 · PROVISIONAL — RELEASE ONLY · HOLD, add only below a disciplined valuation trigger · medium-high confidence in the business, capped confidence in the stock. The pre-print bar was Q3 revenue near the prior $1.73–$1.75B guide and public consensus near $1.74–$1.75B, adjusted EPS about $2.48, with investors principally testing whether AI-datacenter and high-speed interconnect demand could broaden beyond a narrow order surge. Keysight delivered $1.846B revenue, $3.07 adjusted EPS, $2.091B orders and a $1.93–$1.95B Q4 revenue guide. The business and estimates improved sharply; the stock case is less asymmetric at roughly $341 before the release because a substantial AI-test premium is already embedded.
| Metric | Prior guide / dated consensus | Actual / new guide | Variance and classification |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 revenue | company $1.73–$1.75B; Yahoo/public aggregation ~$1.75B | $1.846B, +36.5% YoY | +$96M vs prior-guide high; structural positive |
| Q3 adjusted EPS | public aggregation ~$2.48 | $3.07 vs $1.72 YoY | +$0.59; positive, but quality-qualified |
| Orders | no public Street range; prior Q2 record >$2B | $2.091B vs $1.340B YoY | +56%; second record quarter; structural positive |
| Q4 revenue | valuation bar assumed growth normalization; public consensus about $1.81B | $1.93–$1.95B | +$120–140M; structural positive |
| Q4 adjusted EPS | not publicly verifiable at cutoff | $3.34–$3.40 | higher forward earnings floor; hurdle otherwise NOT_VERIFIABLE |
The headline EPS beat is not clean enough to carry the thesis alone. The $3.07 non-GAAP result excludes $0.42 of acquisition amortization, $0.27 of stock compensation, $0.16 of acquisition/integration cost and smaller restructuring items, partly offset by investment and tax effects. The $0.77 gross gap from GAAP EPS exceeds the $0.59 beat versus the public estimate, tripping the >30% low-quality-beat flag. However, revenue, orders and $403M of free cash flow independently validate the operating upside, so the correct reading is strong business quality with adjusted-EPS quality caveated—not dismissal of the beat.
Keysight monetizes scarce test-and-measurement capability across the design cycle. In AI infrastructure, the bottleneck is not merely chip volume: customers must validate increasingly complex high-speed links, optics, protocol interoperability, power integrity and system behavior before deployment. More design starts and faster standards transitions create instrument, software and service demand before end systems ship. Qualification depth, installed workflows and calibration/service infrastructure make switching costly.
Three causal KPIs moved together. First, CSG revenue rose 43% to $1.345B, led by 56% growth in commercial communications; this is direct evidence that AI/datacenter and next-generation network development is converting to revenue. CSG gross margin expanded from 67% to 71% and operating margin from 26% to 34%, showing mix and utilization leverage rather than revenue-only growth. Second, EISG revenue rose 21% to $501M, with gross margin rising from 57% to 64%; breadth across semiconductor, general electronics, automotive and energy reduces the risk that one hyperscaler program explains the quarter. Third, orders reached $2.091B, 1.13x reported revenue, supporting continued backlog and conversion into Q4. Free cash flow of $403M, or 76% of non-GAAP net income, is the buried confirmation that working capital did not absorb the surge.
The compound flag is positive: order growth, segment mix and margin expansion are causally linked through higher-value instruments/software and fixed-cost leverage. The failure mode is equally specific—if order duration is short or customer pre-buys normalize, the same operating leverage reverses.
FY26 revenue algebra is approximately nine-month revenue of $5.163B plus Q4 guide midpoint $1.94B, or ~$7.10B. Nine-month adjusted EPS of $8.11 plus Q4 midpoint $3.37 implies ~$11.48 FY26 adjusted EPS before any share-count variance. For FY27, a transparent range is more honest than a point estimate: 8–12% revenue growth on ~$7.10B gives $7.67–$7.96B; stable-to-100 bp better operating leverage and modest buybacks support roughly $12.50–$14.00 adjusted EPS. At $341, that is ~24–27x the internal FY27 range. A 2x multiple compression is worth roughly $25–28 per share, which can offset a year of EPS growth; this is why the action is HOLD rather than chasing the release.
| Live claim | Evidence required | Evidence received | Verdict / next resolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus: Q2 order strength was transient | another >$2B order quarter and Q4 guide | $2.091B orders; $1.93–$1.95B Q4 revenue | weakened; Q4 orders resolve durability |
| Bull: AI test is broadening into a multi-domain platform cycle | CSG plus EISG growth and margin | +43% / +21%; both gross margins up | strengthened |
| Bear: adjusted EPS masks acquisition/SBC economics | cash conversion and GAAP bridge | $403M FCF, but $0.77 exclusions | partially strengthened |
| Valuation-implied market: growth remains premium for multiple years | FY27 orders, backlog conversion, pricing | not yet available | unresolved |
Thesis pillars: demand IMPROVED; pricing/mix IMPROVED; margins IMPROVED; competitive position REINFORCED; balance sheet/capital allocation UNCHANGED; management credibility PENDING — CALL; catalyst timing IMPROVED. Entering the print, the story was “AI-test momentum must prove repeatable.” After release it became “a broad, margin-accretive order cycle with a higher FY26 exit rate.” After-call and settled-reaction states remain pending.
Business delta: materially better breadth and conversion. Estimate delta: FY26 exit EPS and FY27 base rise. Stock delta: better business but less obvious upside at a high-20s forward multiple. Action: HOLD; ADD below $300 or below 23x a conservatively updated FY27 EPS. Next catalyst is the Q4 print. Three call questions: order duration and cancellation terms; AI/datacenter share of CSG growth; sustainable gross margin after mix normalizes.
Tier 1 · PROVISIONAL — RELEASE ONLY · WAIT · medium confidence. The market needed evidence that Mercury’s defense-electronics turnaround had moved from backlog promises to production throughput, margin and cash. Q4 delivered record $660M bookings, a 2.28 book-to-bill, $290M revenue and $1.9B backlog, while the presentation set FY27 revenue near $1.1B and adjusted EBITDA near $200M. The positive operating reset is real, but $0.37 adjusted EPS missed the public $0.38 consensus, GAAP EPS was only $0.01, and FY27 free-cash-flow conversion is expected near 35%; at an estimated ~$7.0B enterprise value, the valuation still assumes substantial execution.
| Metric | Pre-print stack | Actual / outlook | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | TipRanks consensus $0.38 | $0.37 vs $0.47 YoY | small miss; structural/mix negative |
| Revenue | public range not reliably verifiable | $289.8M, +6.1% YoY | record; structural positive |
| Bookings / book-to-bill | need >1.0x and backlog conversion | $660M / 2.28x | structural positive |
| Q4 adjusted EBITDA | execution hurdle was margin recovery | $49M / 16.7% | down slightly in dollars YoY, but best FY26 margin |
| FY27 | valuation requires double-digit-like growth and margin recovery | revenue approaching $1.1B; EBITDA approaching $200M; FCF conversion ~35% | revenue/EBITDA positive; cash timing negative |
Buy-side hurdle and TIF Ledger threshold are NOT_VERIFIABLE. The EPS quality gate remains adverse: $0.37 adjusted EPS versus $0.01 GAAP shows the equity narrative depends on exclusions and future operating normalization. There is no adjusted EPS beat to label low quality; instead, the release is a bookings/backlog beat paired with an earnings-quality warning.
Mercury sits between commercial semiconductor ecosystems and classified defense platforms. Its value is qualified, secure, ruggedized processing and RF subsystems that can survive defense requirements and integrate into long-lived programs. Bookings do not become revenue automatically: material availability, engineering milestones, fixed-price program performance, factory yield and customer acceptance govern backlog conversion.
The first causal KPI is $660M of bookings, up 93%, taking total backlog above $1.9B and next-12-month backlog to $1.0B. The mix spans common processing architecture, effectors, airborne, space and missile defense, making the signal broader than one program. The second is over-time revenue, up 23.6% and the highest in 15 quarters, which management links to improved material receipt and supply alignment. That is the buried operating signal: procurement is beginning to unlock stalled work. The third is margin/cash conversion—Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin reached 16.7%, FY26 gross margin rose 70 bp to 28.6%, and FY26 net working capital fell $18M even as revenue grew 7.9%. Yet inventory rose to $367M from $333M and FY27 FCF conversion is only ~35%, showing the growth ramp consumes cash before it releases it.
Compound flag: positive bookings plus improving material flow can create production scale, higher backlog margin and EBITDA leverage. Failure mode: inventory builds ahead of acceptance milestones, fixed-price development issues recur, or bookings remain non-cancellable but far-dated.
FY27 guidance algebra is company-provided: revenue approaching $1.1B, adjusted EBITDA approaching $200M (high-teens margin) and FCF conversion approaching 35%, implying roughly $70M of FCF. FY28 management’s reference point is low-double-digit organic growth and adjusted EBITDA margin at the low end of the low-to-mid-20s target. A simple FY28 sensitivity of $1.20B revenue at 20–21% margin yields $240–252M EBITDA. With market cap around $6.8B and $227M net debt, enterprise value is roughly $7.0B: ~35x FY27 EBITDA and ~28–29x the FY28 sensitivity. A 25x FY28 EBITDA multiple implies ~$6.2B EV, below the current estimate; a 30x multiple implies ~$7.5B EV, only modest equity upside. Execution must be nearly flawless.
| Live claim | Threshold | Evidence | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull: defense budgets are converting to durable production awards | broad bookings and NTM backlog | $660M bookings; $1.0B NTM backlog | strengthened |
| Bear: backlog is low-quality and cannot convert | revenue, material flow, margin | record revenue; over-time revenue +23.6%; margin 16.7% | weakened, not falsified |
| Bear: cash remains structurally weak | FCF conversion ≥50% | FY27 only ~35% | strengthened |
| Valuation-implied: FY28 reaches low-20s margin without another reset | quarterly progression | not yet proven | unresolved |
Thesis pillars: demand IMPROVED; pricing/mix UNRESOLVED; margins IMPROVED; competitive position REINFORCED; balance sheet IMPROVED through $55M YoY net-debt reduction; credibility PENDING — CALL; catalyst timing IMPROVED. Entering the print, the narrative was “turnaround needs conversion.” After release it is “bookings and supply alignment have de-risked growth, but valuation and cash conversion now become the bottlenecks.”
Business delta: stronger demand visibility and factory throughput. Estimate delta: FY27 revenue/EBITDA floor rises, FCF remains back-half weighted. Stock delta: fundamentals improved more than earnings quality, but the premium multiple limits upside. Action: WAIT; initiate only below 27x the FY27 EBITDA target (roughly EV $5.4B) or after two quarters of ≥18% EBITDA margin and ≥50% FCF conversion. Three call questions: firm versus option content in the $660M bookings; margin of new backlog versus legacy backlog; inventory and milestone timing behind the 35% FCF guide.
Tier 2 · PROVISIONAL — RELEASE ONLY · HOLD; consider below $130. Toll exceeded the prior Q3 delivery, ASP and adjusted-gross-margin guide and public consensus of ~$2.90 EPS / $2.61B revenue: $2.97 EPS, $2.65B home-sales revenue, 2,662 deliveries at $996,400 and 25.6% adjusted gross margin. But the YoY engine still decelerated—deliveries -10%, revenue -8%, adjusted gross margin -190 bp and operating margin 13.5% versus 16.6%. Net contracts increased 5% in both units and dollars, cancellations improved to 5.4% of signed contracts from 7.5%, and community count rose to 471 from 420. Those forward indicators prevent a bearish read, but the per-community sales pace slipped to 5.4 from 5.6 and backlog value fell 2% to $6.24B.
Three causal KPIs matter. Contract pace measures demand before revenue; its +5% growth is healthy but trails 12% community growth, implying weaker absorption per community. Adjusted gross margin captures incentives, land basis and mix; the 25.6% result beat guide by 35 bp but remains well below last year. Backlog units and value determine next-year conversion; 5,312 homes / $6.24B is down, while backlog ASP rose to $1.174M, preserving dollar content. The buried positive is cancellation quality, not headline EPS. EPS quality is acceptable—this is GAAP EPS and the small consensus beat was not driven by a disclosed tax or mark-to-market windfall—though repurchases at $148.63 help per-share outcomes.
FY26 guide implies 10,500–10,600 deliveries at $995k–$1.0M, roughly $10.45–$10.60B of home-sales revenue, with 26.1% adjusted gross margin and 480–490 communities. The FY2 bridge is community count × contracts per community × ASP × conversion. If communities rise 8% but sales pace falls 5%, unit growth is only ~3%; a 100 bp margin change on ~$10.5B revenue changes pre-tax profit by ~$105M, roughly $0.80 per share after tax. At $142.86, the stock is about 1.55x book and roughly low-teens normalized EPS—reasonable, not distressed.
Debate: affluent buyers and low leverage strengthened by contract growth/cancellations; the bear case on incentive and land-cost pressure strengthened by margin contraction; capital returns reinforced by the buyback raise to $700M. Thesis pillars: demand UNCHANGED/SLIGHTLY BETTER, margin WEAKENED, balance sheet REINFORCED, catalyst timing PENDING — CALL. Entering narrative: luxury resilience versus margin erosion. After release: order resilience is intact, but community growth is doing more work than absorption. Action: HOLD; add below $130 if Q4 adjusted margin remains ≥26%. Falsify on backlog <$5.8B or an FY27 adjusted-margin guide below 25%. Call questions for August 19: incentives by market; FY27 sales pace versus community growth; land impairments and gross-margin bridge.
Tier 2 · PROVISIONAL — RELEASE ONLY · HOLD / WAIT. ZTO’s RMB14.55B revenue was roughly in line with public expectations around RMB14.6B, while adjusted diluted ADS earnings of RMB3.79 were roughly in line to modestly above public estimates and 53% above last year. The important split is strong unit economics against slower industry volume: parcels rose 6.5% to 10.486B, market share reached 19.9%, core express ASP rose 15.5%, gross margin expanded 80 bp to 25.7%, but management cut annual parcel-growth guidance to 6–10%.
The operating mechanism is franchise-network density. ZTO controls trunk transport and sorting while partners handle pickup/last mile; scale improves route load, hub utilization and automation economics, but partner health and service quality constrain how aggressively price can be optimized. Three causal KPIs are therefore parcel volume/share, ASP/mix and unit transport/sorting cost. Parcel growth beat the industry by 2.3 points; higher-value key-account and reverse-logistics volume drove ASP; combined unit sorting and transportation cost fell RMB0.02 despite fuel pressure. SG&A excluding SBC fell to 3.8% of revenue from 5.2%. Operating cash flow more than doubled to RMB4.56B against RMB952M capex. The buried risk is other cost of revenue, up 61% because partner pickup/dispatch payments rose with key-account return parcels; premium ASP does not all drop through.
FY1 algebra starts with 40.8–42.4B parcels. At current adjusted net profit per parcel of roughly RMB0.294, each 1% of annual volume is about 0.4B parcels and ~RMB118M of adjusted profit before mix and cost changes. FY2 sensitivity: 8% volume growth with flat unit profit yields roughly 8% profit growth; a RMB0.02 unit-profit change across ~43B parcels changes profit by ~RMB860M. This makes pricing discipline and partner payouts more important than headline volume.
Debate: anti-involution regulation enabling price repair strengthened; volume-growth concern strengthened by the guide cut; network-efficiency moat reinforced by share gain and lower unit transport/sorting cost. Thesis pillars: demand WEAKENED, pricing/mix IMPROVED, margin IMPROVED, competition REINFORCED, cash generation IMPROVED, credibility PENDING — CALL, catalyst timing UNRESOLVED. The narrative shifted from “volume share at any cost” to “regulatory pricing repair can lift profit despite slower parcels.” Action: HOLD/WAIT; confirm with unit profit ≥RMB0.28 and share near 20%; falsify if volume growth slips below 6% or partner costs erase the ASP lift. Call questions: durability of the 15.5% ASP gain; economics of reverse logistics after partner payouts; lower-bound conditions for the 6–10% guide.
Issuer IR schedules Q2 2026 results for 22:00 EDT on August 18 and the call for August 19 at noon. The collector’s $1.76B revenue, $779M gross profit and $365M net income are Q1 values carried into the Q2 slot; they are excluded. Known prior facts: Q1 reflected a sharp lithium-price/volume recovery and the Mt Holland expansion reached final investment decision in July. Missing datum: Q2 realized lithium price, volume, cash cost, capex and Codelco transaction bridge. Catch-up: 2026-08-19 PM after the full release and call. No fresh action.
No August 18 earnings release or current filing appeared on Jack Henry’s IR financials or SEC listing by cutoff. The collector’s $636.2M revenue and $1.53–$1.71 EPS references correspond to the prior fiscal Q3, so using them as Q4 would be a false print. Known prior facts: Q3 benefited from cloud, card/digital and cost discipline; fiscal guidance previously embedded high-single-digit adjusted growth. Missing datum: verified Q4/FY26 revenue, deconversion adjustment, margin and FY27 outlook. Catch-up: 2026-08-19 after a current issuer filing. No fresh action.
CONFIRMED / PARTIAL, now FINAL — POST CALLThe morning brief asked whether transaction breadth was real, how much the $685M tariff refund distorted margin/EPS, and whether management saw a housing-demand inflection. The official 18-page transcript includes complete prepared remarks and Q&A. The call confirmed broader engagement—13 of 16 departments positive, Pro positive, big-ticket transactions +2.4%, online comps +11%—but transactions still fell 1.0% and management said there was “no sign of an inflection point” in housing turnover. It also quantified the refund: $730M cash received, $685M already in COGS, about 145 bp gross benefit, offset by ~60 bp unexpected costs and ~60 bp acquisition mix. That confirms the morning HOLD/WAIT and makes the EPS beat less durable than the headline.
Call sentiment interrogation. Prepared confidence rose from Q1’s “relatively similar” demand description to “exceeded expectations” with broader engagement; Q&A confidence fell back to neutral under tariff and rate questions. Score inputs: prepared confidence +1, Q&A confidence 0, enthusiasm +1, forward visibility 0; answer quality 4/5 across directness, specificity, consistency, ownership and alignment; evasion severity 1. Tone improves versus Q1 but pressure delta is negative. Three decisive pressure tests: Chuck Grom extracted the 145 bp / 85 bp net tariff bridge (A); Scot Ciccarelli elicited Q4 gross margin around flat YoY and no housing inflection (A); Seth Sigman obtained SRS comps above company average but no dollar/margin disclosure (B). Omission: Home Depot still does not quantify Pro/SRS share gain or the profit contribution from faster delivery. CEO Ted Decker’s medical leave changes the speaker set, so corporate-message comparison is higher confidence than CEO-to-CEO comparison.
Release-only conclusion: relief, not a housing-cycle turn. Call evidence strengthened the breadth/share-gain claim and weakened the durability of the Q2 margin beat. Judgment changed: no—morning view confirmed, with better evidence that the margin benefit is timing. Remaining unmodelable variable: exact SRS/GMS incremental margin and FY27 cost lap.
| Ticker | Morning/prior view | PM status | Judgment |
|---|---|---|---|
| BIDU | WAIT; AI growth not yet offsetting search erosion | Official webcast exists, but no complete speaker-attributed transcript/Q&A read | PARTIAL / PENDING_TRANSCRIPT |
| AS | HOLD/WAIT; underlying growth strong, tariff refund aided EPS | No complete attributable transcript/Q&A located | PARTIAL / PENDING_TRANSCRIPT |
| KLAR | WAIT; excellent unit economics, weaker forward GMV/revenue frame | No complete attributable transcript/Q&A located | PARTIAL / PENDING_TRANSCRIPT |
| BHP | HOLD/WAIT FOR CALL | Official results page did not expose a complete FY26 Q&A transcript | PARTIAL / PENDING_TRANSCRIPT |
| FN | prior PM WAIT | Complete current/prior Q&A still unavailable | ROLLED to 2026-08-19 |
| XP | prior PM HOLD | Complete current/prior Q&A still unavailable | ROLLED to 2026-08-19 |
| HTHT | prior PM PARTIAL | Complete current Q&A still unavailable | ROLLED to 2026-08-19 |
| Ticker | Required evidence | Deadline |
|---|---|---|
| KEYS | complete Q3 transcript; order duration, AI mix, sustainable margin | 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT |
| MRCY | complete Q4 transcript; backlog firmness/margin and FCF timing | 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT |
| TOL | August 19 call and full Q&A | 2026-08-19 PM |
| ZTO | complete 20:30 EDT call/Q&A | 2026-08-19 AM |
| SQM | 22:00 release plus August 19 call | 2026-08-19 PM |
| JKHY | verified current filing/release | 2026-08-19 AM |
| BIDU / AS / KLAR / BHP / FN / XP / HTHT | complete attributable call records | 2026-08-19 PM |
| Ticker | Tier | Status | Analytical words | Causal KPIs | Q&A | Debate claims | Prior-call deltas | Omissions | FY1/FY2 bridge | Transcript provenance | Sentiment | Tone delta | Answer quality | Pressure delta | Tracker | Failed/deferred gates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEYS | 1 | PROVISIONAL_RELEASE_ONLY | 1,020 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | complete sensitivity | replay, no transcript | PENDING_TRANSCRIPT | n/a | n/a | n/a | pending | keys.call-forensics |
| SQM | 3 | DEFERRED | 190 | n/a | n/a | 1 | n/a | n/a | deferred | release after cutoff | DEFERRED | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | release absent |
| ZTO | 2 | PROVISIONAL_RELEASE_ONLY | 650 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | complete sensitivity | call incomplete at cutoff | PENDING_TRANSCRIPT | n/a | n/a | n/a | pending | zto.call-forensics |
| TOL | 2 | PROVISIONAL_RELEASE_ONLY | 690 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | complete sensitivity | call on Aug. 19 | PENDING_TRANSCRIPT | n/a | n/a | n/a | pending | tol.call-forensics |
| JKHY | 3 | DEFERRED | 175 | n/a | n/a | 1 | n/a | n/a | deferred | current release absent | DEFERRED | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | release/filing absent |
| MRCY | 1 | PROVISIONAL_RELEASE_ONLY | 1,050 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | complete sensitivity | replay/highlights, no transcript | PENDING_TRANSCRIPT | n/a | n/a | n/a | pending | mrcy.call-forensics |
| HD catch-up | 1 | FINAL_POST_CALL | 760 incremental | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | morning bridge reconciled | official full Q2/Q1 transcripts | SCORED packet | improving | 80/100 input | negative | blocked | state upsert/read-back blocked |
/Users/max/morningsignal-research/state/earnings/earnings_context_2026-08-18_PM.json; accessed 20:06 EDT. Collector actuals for SQM, JKHY, KEYS, TOL and MRCY were cross-checked against issuer releases and rejected where stale.