2026-05-26 19:37
Pre-Market Brief — 2026-04-14
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Morning EarningsBrief — Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Q1'26 bank earnings season kicks into gear today. Big-four balance sheet banks (JPM, WFC, C) plus asset-gathering giant BLK all print before the bell, alongside Dow healthcare bellwether JNJ and grocer ACI. Below: what hit the tape, what management said, how the tape is reacting, and what to watch tonight/tomorrow. Citigroup results weren't fully scraped in search at time of writing — flagged as "reported, results pending confirmation" below. Everything else is verified against issuer press releases and wire-service calendars.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — BMO

  • Headline print: Diluted EPS $5.94 vs. $5.46 consensus (beat by ~$0.48, or ~9%). Reported revenue $49.8B vs. $49.17B consensus; managed revenue $50.5B, +10% YoY. Net income $16.5B, up from $14.6B YoY (+13%).
  • Segments: CCB net income $5.0B at 32% ROE; CIB $9.0B at 21% ROE with "strong Markets and investment banking fees" — the read-across for GS (which printed record-ish numbers yesterday) and for MS later this week is that the Q1 IB reopening narrative is real, not just GS-specific. AWM net income +12% YoY; AUM $4.8T — a fresh high.
  • Capital return: $1.50/sh dividend ($4.1B) + $8.3B net buyback. That's an aggressive repo pace and signals comfort with the capital stack post-Basel III endgame calibration.
  • What to watch going forward: Full-year NII guide on the call — last quarter guide was ~$94B ex-Markets. Any raise here is a meaningful read-through for WFC, BAC, C on deposit beta and asset repricing.
  • Directional call: Unambiguous beat-and-buyback on the highest-quality franchise in the group. If the stock can't rally on this print, it's a tell about positioning/valuation (JPM trades ~2.4x TBV). This is a "good news already priced" setup — watch the open for the fade.

Wells Fargo (WFC) — BMO

  • Headline print: Diluted EPS $1.60 vs. $1.59 consensus (beat by $0.01, adjusted $1.56 per some scrubs — i.e., ex-discrete items it's actually a miss vs. Street). Revenue $21.45B vs. $21.77B consensus (miss ~$320M, or ~1.5%).
  • Drivers: Net income $5.25B (vs. $4.89B YoY). NII +5% YoY; noninterest income +8% YoY. Average loans $996B (vs. $908B YoY); average deposits $1.415T (vs. $1.339T YoY). 46.3M shares repurchased for $4.0B.
  • What to watch: Commentary on the asset cap removal — this is the single biggest swing factor for the WFC thesis. If management reiterates or accelerates the post-cap balance sheet growth plan, the revenue miss gets forgiven. Also: card/auto credit commentary; loan growth acceleration vs. Q4.
  • Directional call: Low-quality beat on headline EPS (penny), revenue miss, but +10% YoY loan growth and +$4B buyback is the real story. Stock likely whippy — Street will re-underwrite on the call based on NII trajectory. If WFC guides NII flat/up vs. prior, the print is net positive despite optics.

BlackRock (BLK) — BMO

  • Headline print: Revenue $6.7B, +27% YoY. GAAP diluted EPS $14.06, +46% YoY; adjusted EPS $12.53 vs. $11.65 consensus (beat ~7.5%). Net income $2.2B, +46% YoY.
  • AUM: $13.89T vs. $11.58T YoY (+$2.3T), but down sequentially from the Q4'25 record of $14.04T — the QoQ draw is market-driven (falling equity/bond marks), not flows. Long-term net inflows $135.9B in quarter; $620B LTM.
  • Margins: GAAP op margin 42.0% (from 32.2%); adjusted op margin 44.5% (from 43.2%). Big jump in GAAP is GIP/HPS integration costs rolling off — this is the clearest signal yet that the private markets acquisitions are earnings-accretive on a run-rate basis.
  • What to watch: iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) flow data in the supplemental — still the incremental growth lever that matters most for the ETF narrative. Also, any update on HPS run-rate fee synergies.
  • Directional call: Beat on EPS and revenue, inflows strong, margin expansion real. The $150B of QoQ AUM bleed is cosmetic — headline risk, not fundamental. This is a buy-the-dip setup if the stock opens weak on the sequential AUM headline.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — BMO

  • Headline print: GAAP EPS $2.10 (miss by ~$0.09) due to litigation/acquisition items; adjusted EPS $2.70 vs. $2.68 consensus (slight beat). Revenue $24.56B vs. $23.61B consensus (beat ~$950M, or ~4%).
  • Guidance raise: FY26 reported sales guide lifted to ~$100.8B (+7% at midpoint); adjusted EPS guide to $11.55 (+7% at midpoint). Both are meaningful raises this early in the year — typically JNJ runs conservative in Q1.
  • Pipeline headlines: ICOTYDE (first/only targeted oral peptide for plaque psoriasis) approval; TECVAYLI + DARZALEX FASPRO combo in relapsed/refractory MM; VARIPULSE Pro EU approval; TECNIS PureSee IOL US approval. Innovative Medicine is firing; MedTech is the swing factor on the call.
  • What to watch: Stelara biosimilar erosion curve vs. guidance assumption. If management implies erosion is tracking better than feared, that's the source of the raise and the stock should get paid. Talc/mesh litigation accrual — any additional charge would be a negative.
  • Directional call: Clean beat-and-raise on adjusted metrics, pipeline momentum. GAAP optics will confuse retail; institutional will buy the raise. Positive setup into the morning.

Citigroup (C) — BMO

  • Status: Reported this morning before the bell, per company IR calendar and BusinessWire announcements. Actual printed numbers were not confirmed in public search aggregators at time of this brief.
  • Street expectations going in: Revenue $23.5–23.7B consensus (+9–10% YoY); EPS $2.63–2.65 (+35% YoY). Setup: Street is underwriting an investment-banking-led turnaround quarter; Jane Fraser's restructuring narrative is on trial.
  • What to watch: (1) Services fee growth — this is the highest-multiple-bearing segment and the real Citi bull case. (2) IB fees — JPM and GS both flagged strong Markets/IB; Citi should benefit from the same tide. (3) Expense trajectory — mgmt has guided to $53.5–53.8B FY expenses; any slippage = multiple compression. (4) CET1 and buyback commentary.
  • Directional call: High-beta to the bank-earnings reopening narrative. If Citi prints in line with the JPM/GS read-through (strong IB + Markets), it's the biggest upside mover in the group because it trades at the steepest discount to TBV (~0.8x). Check the actual numbers before positioning.

Albertsons (ACI) — BMO

  • Status: Reporting Q4/FY25 (period ended Feb 28, 2026) before market open today; conf call 8:30am ET. Actual printed numbers not yet aggregated in public search at time of writing.
  • Street expectations: Revenue ~$20.47B.
  • What to watch: (1) Identical sales ex-fuel — consumer-facing grocery tape tells us a lot about SNAP, trade-down, and food inflation pass-through. (2) Digital sales growth and pharmacy comps (Kroger merger termination left ACI digesting a ~$600M breakup fee; pharmacy is the margin lever). (3) FY26 guide — first full-year outlook without the Kroger overhang. (4) Any capital return update (buyback ramp).
  • Directional call: The FY26 guide is the whole print. Street wants to see mid-single-digit EBITDA growth and a credible pharmacy/loyalty-member monetization path. If guide disappoints, the stock has no obvious buyer given the Kroger-deal arb base has rotated out.

AMC Catch-Up: What Moved After Yesterday's Close (Apr 13)

Note: GS and FAST printed BMO on April 13 (not AMC), so they were in yesterday's morning brief. The material AMC tape on Monday was thin — only micro-caps (ZENA, XTIA) per the calendar scrubs, all sub-$2B so outside our coverage filter.

Goldman Sachs (GS) re-capped for context since it shapes JPM/C/MS read-through: - EPS $17.55 vs. $16.49 consensus; revenue $17.23B vs. $16.97B consensus. 2nd-highest quarterly revenue and EPS in company history. Annualized ROE 19.8%. - Stock -3.1% in premkt reaction despite the beat — classic "sell-the-news" on a stock that had rallied into the print on IB-reopening hype. The weak tape reaction is a cautionary signal for JPM and MS later this week: bar is high, and even record prints can fade.

Watch List — Tonight & Tomorrow

Tomorrow BMO (Wed Apr 15):

  1. Bank of America (BAC) — Consensus EPS $0.99 (+10% YoY), revenue $29.55B (+8% YoY). Key number: NII trajectory and deposit cost peak commentary. BAC is the most rate-sensitive of the big-4; any hint of NII inflection higher is a catalyst.
  2. ASML (ASML) — Consensus EPS $7.72, revenue $10.21B. Key number: bookings (lumpy but the leading indicator) — Street modeling ~€4.5–5B. Any China-exposure commentary will move the whole semi-cap complex (AMAT, LRCX, KLAC).
  3. Morgan Stanley (MS) — Wealth Management fee momentum and IB-pipeline color post-GS/JPM prints are the two things that matter. Positioning is long into the print.

Tomorrow AMC: Lighter slate; no large-cap macro-movers on the published calendar.

Bottom Line

Bank earnings kicking off with a clear beat from JPM and BLK, a low-quality beat/revenue miss from WFC, a beat-and-raise from JNJ on the healthcare side, and Citi still being digested. The GS tape yesterday (record print, -3% reaction) is the cautionary read: positioning has been building into these earnings, and sell-the-news risk is real even on clean beats. Watch the opening 30 minutes of JPM and BLK tape for the single best signal on whether financials still have room to run or this is the local high for the group.

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