MorningSignal
Research Platform
2026-04-11 21:47
Market Cap: ~$2.0B (borderline coverage threshold)
What to expect: BlackBerry is releasing Q4 and full-year fiscal 2026 results at 8:00 AM ET this morning. Results were not yet indexed at time of publication. Management guided Q4 revenue to $138M–$148M (consensus: $144.55M) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.03–$0.05 (consensus: $0.04). Operating cash flow guided to $40M–$45M sequentially.
What matters going in: - QNX is the franchise. The embedded-OS platform now runs in 275+ million vehicles worldwide and guided Q4 revenue to $71M–$77M, which would surpass the Q3 record of $68.7M. The Volvo partnership expansion is the latest design win. - Secure Communications raised FY2026 guidance to $61M–$65M, suggesting stabilization in the cybersecurity segment after years of managed decline. - Wall Street expects 2% YoY revenue growth and a 33% EPS increase — modest, but directionally positive for a company that spent years shrinking.
The one thing to watch: QNX revenue. If it clears $77M, that signals the automotive-software TAM thesis is inflecting. If it misses the low end ($71M), the autonomous-driving/EV platform story stalls at a critical moment when competitors (Wind River, Green Hills) are gaining traction.
Directional call: BB is a show-me story trading at ~$2B. The stock needs QNX to print accelerating growth to justify the current multiple. Today's print sets the tone for FY2027 guidance — that's where the real signal is.
Note: Actual results will be available after 8:00 AM ET. This section will need updating once numbers drop.
Market Cap: ~$28B
What they reported: - Comparable EPS: $1.90 vs. $1.74 consensus — beat by $0.16 (9.2%) - GAAP EPS: $1.16 vs. $3.29 est — miss driven by one-time charges and impairments related to Wine & Spirits divestitures (SVEDKA) - Q4 Net Sales: $1.92B vs. ~$1.90B consensus — modest beat - Full-Year FY2026: Net sales $9.14B, comparable EPS $11.82, GAAP EPS $9.61 - Q4 Net Income: $224.7M vs. a loss of $370.6M a year ago
Segment breakdown: - Beer: Remained the #1 dollar share gainer across all U.S. tracked channels. Q4 beer sales ~$1.73B (+1% YoY). Shipment volumes +1.1%. Pacifico and Victoria posted double-digit depletion growth. Full-year beer depletions declined 2.1%, but that masks brand-level divergence: the Mexican lager portfolio (Modelo Especial, Corona, Pacifico) continues to take shelf space. - Wine & Spirits: Sales collapsed 58% to $194.2M on a 72.9% volume decline — but this is almost entirely the SVEDKA vodka divestiture and the 2025 wine portfolio exits. This is an intentional shrink, not demand destruction.
What management said that matters: - Demand described as "subdued" across categories — consumers trading down to cheaper beer and wine. - FY2027 comparable EPS guidance: $11.20–$11.90 vs. $12.36 consensus — a 7–9% miss to Street expectations. - Withdrew previously issued FY2028 outlook entirely, citing macroeconomic uncertainty. This is the headline. - Raised the quarterly dividend, signaling confidence in cash generation even as growth visibility deteriorates. - Incoming CEO Nicholas Fink joining the call — leadership transition underway.
Stock reaction: - Fell ~2% in after-hours trading to $147.26 on the guidance miss and FY28 withdrawal. - Pre-market April 9: recovered, up ~$2.48 to ~$154, suggesting the market is digesting the Q4 beat and dividend raise as partially offsetting the forward weakness. - UBS raised its price target from $168 to $176 and maintained a "buy" rating.
The one thing to watch: Beer depletion trends in Q1 FY2027. The 2.1% annual decline masks the brand-mix story — if Modelo/Pacifico can hold positive depletions while Corona stabilizes, the beer business is fine. If total beer depletions accelerate downward, the "trade-down" narrative becomes a structural problem.
Directional call: This print is fine but not inspiring. The Q4 beat shows execution, but management pulling FY28 guidance is a confidence signal — they don't have visibility, and they're telling you that. The stock is trading at ~13x forward EPS, which is cheap for a branded CPG company, but only if beer volume stabilizes. The dividend raise is a floor, not a catalyst. Hold. Wait for Q1 FY2027 beer data before getting constructive.
Market Cap: ~$7.8B
What they reported: - Revenue: $126.6M vs. $76.56M consensus — massive beat (+66% above est, +139% YoY) - GAAP EPS: -$0.36 vs. -$0.16 est — miss on GAAP basis (interest expense, stock comp) - Adjusted Net Income: $33.2M | Adjusted EBITDA: $44.1M - GAAP Net Loss: $100.9M (attributable to common stockholders)
Segment breakdown: - HPC Hosting: $71.0M in revenue — the growth engine. Includes $44.1M base rent, $18.9M tenant fit-out services, $8.1M power pass-through and ancillary. This segment alone nearly matches total company revenue from a year ago. - The company now operates what it describes as "one of the only 100MW direct-to-chip liquid-cooled data centers in the world online today."
Key corporate action: Post-quarter, APLD completed a $2.15B private offering of 6.750% Senior Secured Notes due 2031 to fund construction at the Polaris Forge 2 campus. This is a massive capital raise that roughly matches the company's pre-earnings equity value — management is swinging for the fences on AI data center buildout.
Stock reaction: - Rose 10.37% during the regular session on April 8 (ahead of results, suggesting leakage or momentum). - After-hours: gave back ~$0.95, settling around $26.84. The market liked the revenue beat but is digesting the GAAP loss and the debt load.
The one thing to watch: Can APLD turn the revenue inflection into sustained GAAP profitability, or does the $2.15B debt issuance create a capital structure that overwhelms the operating model? The revenue beat is spectacular, but at -$0.36 GAAP EPS with $2.15B in new secured debt, this is a leveraged bet on AI infrastructure demand persistence.
Directional call: The AI data center thesis is intact — 139% revenue growth speaks for itself. But the GAAP loss and massive debt raise mean this is a high-conviction, high-risk name. The stock is priced for execution. If hyperscaler demand for liquid-cooled capacity holds (and all signals say it will), APLD is positioned well. If there's any hiccup in tenant commitments or a CRE financing squeeze, the debt load becomes a problem fast. Speculative buy for AI infrastructure bulls; avoid for quality-focused investors.
Quick recap for context, as today's tape will reflect the post-earnings move: - Adjusted EPS: $0.64 — beat estimates (~$0.57–$0.61 range depending on source) - Adjusted Revenue: $14.2B — record for a March quarter, +9.4% YoY - Pretax Profit: $530M | Free Cash Flow: $1.2B | ROIC: 12% - Fuel cost: $2.62/gal in Q1 (+7% YoY). Q2 projection: ~$4.30/gal all-in, fuel expense rising by $2B+ at forward curve. - Q2 Guidance: Adjusted EPS $1.00–$1.50 (consensus was $1.41). Revenue growth "low-teens" YoY (above ~10% Street est). - Plans to "meaningfully" cut capacity growth to manage fuel cost pressure while passing costs to consumers. - Stock soared ~13% in premarket on the earnings beat and above-consensus revenue guidance.
The real earnings season starts next week. Here's what matters:
| Date | Company | Ticker | What to Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Apr 13 | Goldman Sachs | GS | Investment banking fee rebound as IPO/M&A thaw. Trading revenue durability. Consensus: ~$14.78 EPS. First major bank to report. |
| Tue Apr 14 | JPMorgan Chase | JPM | The bellwether. Net interest income trajectory, CRE exposure ($950B industry maturity this year), consumer credit quality. Jamie Dimon succession path now formalized — watch for strategic signals. |
| Tue Apr 14 | Wells Fargo | WFC | Asset cap removal progress. NII sensitivity to rate trajectory. Mortgage origination trends. |
| Tue Apr 14 | Citigroup | C | Transformation progress under Jane Fraser. International consumer banking exits. Services revenue durability. |
| Wed Apr 15 | Bank of America | BAC | NII inflection — most rate-sensitive of the big 4. Consumer banking deposit trends. Wealth management flows. |
| Wed Apr 15 | Morgan Stanley | MS | Bitcoin ETF and private-credit fund as fee drivers. Wealth management net new assets. UBS upgraded to "buy" on April 7 with $196 target. Consensus: $2.95 EPS, $19.23B revenue. |
| Thu Apr 16 | PepsiCo | PEP | Frito-Lay volume recovery. Beverage affordability. Middle East tensions impact. Consensus: $1.55 non-GAAP EPS. Traders 84.5% odds of a beat. |
| Thu Apr 16 | U.S. Bancorp | USB | NII outlook. Credit quality in commercial and CRE portfolios. |
The big question for bank earnings: Can the "fortress banks" absorb the CRE maturity wave while benefiting from the M&A/IPO thaw? GS on Monday sets the tone. JPM on Tuesday is the verdict.
No large-cap BMO reporters of major significance today (April 9). BlackBerry (~$2B market cap, borderline coverage) is the only confirmed BMO print, and it's a niche automotive-software/cybersecurity name — not a market mover.
The real action today is the Constellation Brands earnings call at 8:00 AM ET — the after-hours release showed a Q4 beat but deeply disappointing forward guidance. How management navigates the "subdued demand" narrative on the call will determine whether STZ holds the premarket recovery or gives it back.
Next week is when Q1 2026 earnings season truly begins — Goldman Sachs on Monday kicks off the bank parade, followed by the full big-bank lineup Tuesday through Thursday. That's where the macro signal is.
Brief compiled April 9, 2026 ~7:00 AM ET. BlackBerry results pending at 8:00 AM ET. All figures sourced from company press releases, GlobeNewswire, Benzinga, GuruFocus, MarketBeat, and StockTitan.