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MorningSignal Research

The tape delivered a broad risk-on rebound as a 5.46% drop in crude relieved the inflation tail: QQQ rose 1.76%, IWM 1.72% and SPY 1.42%, with small caps participating and VIX at 15.86. The quality of the move was better than a narrow megacap squeeze, but leadership still carried a cap-growth signature—software rose 3.00% versus semiconductors at 0.91%—while the 10-year yield remained elevated at 4.686%.

S&P +1.42% QQQ +1.76% 2026-08-03

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Market Signal

RISK ON

Score 0.85

Tape Source

Codex

Active-task narrative

Breakout Scan

Setups passing the model today

Platform

Daily · Weekly

Podcast and earnings feeds included

At A Glance

Market Snapshot

Core index performance and year-to-date context.

S&P 500

$757.67

+1.42% today · +11.49% YTD

Nasdaq 100

$700.07

+1.76% today · +14.45% YTD

Russell 2000

$296.22

+1.72% today · +19.56% YTD

Dow Jones

$531.22

+1.32% today · +10.69% YTD

Desk Read

Today's Tape

Sector commentary generated from the day’s market data and headline set.

Breadth and regime +1.7%

IWM outpaced SPY by 30bp and 63.5% of usable S&P 1500 constituents were above their 50-day average, while 70.4% were above the 200-day. The quantitative composite scored +0.85 Risk On; 17 recent stock-level golden crosses versus 5 death crosses add confirmation.

Cap growth and software +3.0%

Communication Services led at +2.86%; IGV software gained 3.00%, WCLD cloud 3.07% and HACK cybersecurity 2.68%, while SMH semiconductors rose only 0.91%. That gap says the session rewarded monetization and application-layer duration more than uniform AI infrastructure exposure.

Oil relief -5.5%

USO fell 5.46% and Energy lagged at -1.28%, while airlines gained 4.44% and the Passenger Airlines sub-industry rose 5.17%. The mechanism is a near-term transfer from fuel producers and refiners toward fuel-consuming cyclicals; it is relief, not yet a structural reversal, because Energy remains up 30.56% year to date.

Rates and inflation +4.7%

The 10-year yield closed at 4.686% and TLT slipped 0.07%, so equities rallied without a material duration tailwind. Headline flow linked lower yields and crude to Iran de-escalation hopes, while a manufacturing survey flagged persistent inflation pressure; the resulting mix supports tactical risk but keeps valuation sensitivity live.

Sub-industry leadership +6.4%

Electronic Components (+6.42%), Internet Services & Infrastructure (+6.15%) and Passenger Airlines (+5.17%) led. The breadth beneath those groups was uneven—Electronic Components had only 33.3% above the 50-day average despite 100% above the 200-day—so the one-day surge should be confirmed rather than extrapolated.

Breakout inventory +15.0%

The scanner surfaced 15 setups, led by EA (74.2), NEOG (72.3), ARWR (68.9), DD (68.0) and HUM (67.9). Treat the list as an idea queue rather than a complete cross-section because Yahoo returned substantial symbol, DNS, thread and cache errors during the 1,411-name batch scan.

Catalysts and falsification +0.0%

Tactical risk-on remains the base case while small-cap relative strength, breadth above 60% and VIX below 18 persist. The view is falsified by renewed oil stress, IWM giving back its relative gain, breadth falling below 50%, or credit weakening decisively against Treasuries; a sustained software-over-semis spread would further favor application exposure over a uniform AI-capex basket.

Cross-Sector Linkage

The session was broadly risk-on: cyclicals beat defensives by 1.53 percentage points, discretionary beat staples by 2.05 points, IWM beat SPY by 0.30 points, and growth beat value by 1.28 points. The important exception was AI-capex leadership: software beat semiconductors by 2.09 points, so this was not a uniform infrastructure bid.

Active Codex task market commentary · Not financial advice

Signal & Macro

RISK ON

0.85

Risk Off Neutral Risk On

VIX 15.9 (falling) +0.75

Yield Curve +0.99% (steepening) +1.00

Credit HYG/IEF above 50d (+0.7%) +0.50

Breadth RSP/SPY above 50d (+1.0%) +1.00

Momentum SPY above 50d, above 200d +1.00

Risk On at +0.85, supported by falling VIX, a steep positive 2s10s curve, positive breadth and SPY above its 50- and 200-day averages. The signal remains tactical because the 10-year yield is high and same-day credit did not confirm as strongly as equities.

VIX

15.86

-15.05% over 5d

10Y Yield

4.69%

Treasury benchmark

2Y Yield

3.70%

Front-end rate signal

2s/10s

+99bps

Steepening / normal

Participation

Communication Svcs

+2.86%

Industrials

+1.85%

Cons. Discretionary

+1.83%

Technology

+1.53%

Materials

+1.15%

Financials

+0.77%

Overnight & Global

Key overnight checks: crude after its 5.46% drop; the 10-year yield at 4.686%; VIX at 15.86; follow-through in IWM versus SPY; and post-close earnings headlines, including Palantir, before promoting any company-specific claim to a thesis change.

Leadership

High-Conviction Setups

View Full Scan

#	Ticker	Name	Sector	Score	RS	Base	Trend	Price	vs 52W High	Vol/Avg
1	EA ★	EA	Unknown	74.2	53.1	79.8	100.0	$209.91	+0.0%	1.75x
2	NEOG	NEOG	Unknown	72.3	90.9	31.2	100.0	$11.90	-1.2%	1.62x
3	ARWR ★	ARWR	Unknown	68.9	100.0	11.1	100.0	$86.01	-3.0%	0.68x
4	DD	DD	Unknown	68.0	60.5	71.4	75.0	$141.28	-7.9%	1.87x
5	HUM	HUM	Unknown	67.9	82.5	28.2	100.0	$374.50	-8.5%	1.56x
6	BAX	BAX	Unknown	67.8	78.8	32.3	100.0	$28.10	+0.0%	1.65x
7	SWK	SWK	Unknown	66.8	67.8	42.1	100.0	$98.11	+0.0%	1.84x
8	IEX ★	IEX	Unknown	65.9	57.9	50.8	100.0	$232.70	-0.5%	1.51x

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