2026-08-20
Daily Report
2026-08-20
Risk appetite weakened without becoming disorderly: SPY fell 0.84%, QQQ 0.72% and IWM 1.34%, while higher-rate pressure, consumer weakness and a defensive dollar/gold bid were offset by energy, crypto and selective AI-infrastructure strength.
SPY -0.84% QQQ -0.72% 15 qualifying setups
Market Signal
NEUTRAL
Score 0.15
Generated
2026-08-20 16:51
Static build timestamp
Leaders
Energy
Best-performing sector today
Lagging
Health Care
Weakest sector on the tape
Overview
Index & Macro Snapshot
Core benchmarks, volatility, and curve shape for the session.
S&P 500
$762.60
-0.84% today · +12.22% YTD
Nasdaq 100
$710.93
-0.72% today · +16.23% YTD
Russell 2000
$297.67
-1.34% today · +20.15% YTD
Dow Jones
$527.51
-1.27% today · +9.92% YTD
VIX
16.01
+9.43% over 5d
10Y Treasury
4.70%
Long-end benchmark
2Y Treasury
3.70%
Policy-sensitive front end
2s/10s Curve
+99bps
Normal / steepening
Tape Read
What's Moving Markets Today
Daily strategist letter and the cross-sector spreads behind today's tape.
Strategist Letter · 2026-08-20
Morning Note
The market closed with a risk-off surface and a selective interior. SPY fell 0.84%, QQQ 0.72%, DIA 1.27% and IWM 1.34%; the weak small-cap spread, WMT's 9.15% drop and losses in both consumer ETFs point to financing and household sensitivity rather than a generalized growth scare. The strongest countertrend signals were BITO +6.05%, USO +2.77%, Energy +0.27%, MRVL +5.79% and SMH +0.31%. Within AI, the 119bp semi-over-software spread and sharp CRWD/ZS losses preserve the infrastructure thesis while raising the proof burden for software and cyber. Rates remain the key transmission channel: TLT -0.82%, the 10-year at 4.696% and value beating growth by 115bp. Credit was softer but orderly, so the working regime is valuation compression and rotation, not systemic de-risking. The scanner still found 15 Stage 2 setups, including three-day persistence in WBS and HAE; that constructive single-name breadth is the main offset to the weak index close. Positioning implication: keep gross risk disciplined, favor energy and proven AI infrastructure over long-duration software, and require stabilization in IWM, consumer breadth and credit before broadening beta. Falsification: a renewed rise in HYG/IEF and RSP/SPY alongside IWM relative strength would turn today's defensive interpretation back toward a healthy rotation; a VIX break above 20 with widening high-yield weakness would instead confirm a broader risk unwind.
Cyclicals vs Defensives
risk-off
Cyclicals (-1.00%) are lagging Defensives (-0.91%) by 0.09pp.
Breadth is softening underneath the index, with no defensive group strong enough to signal an orderly low-volatility rotation.
Discretionary vs Staples
risk-off
XLY -1.61% vs XLP -1.41% (spread -0.20pp).
Discretionary underperformance alongside WMT's 9.15% drop raises the hurdle for household-exposed earnings.
Semis vs Software (AI capex theme)
risk-on
SMH +0.31% vs IGV -0.88% — spread +1.19pp.
The tape is preserving the compute/connectivity thesis while demanding more proof from software and cyber valuations.
Energy vs Utilities
risk-on
XLE +0.27% vs XLU -0.57% — spread +0.84pp.
The commodity and real-asset bid is broad enough to be a portfolio offset to duration pressure.
Small caps vs Large caps (IWM vs SPY)
risk-off
IWM -1.34% vs SPY -0.84% — spread -0.50pp.
Smaller-company financing and earnings sensitivity remain the weak link; require IWM relative stabilization before adding beta.
Stocks vs Bonds (SPY vs TLT)
risk-off
SPY -0.84% AND TLT -0.82% — both red.
A higher real-rate or term-premium impulse is pressuring both equity duration and bonds; this is a valuation headwind, not yet a credit event.
Dollar vs Equities
risk-off
UUP +0.11% / SPY -0.84%.
A firmer dollar reinforces tighter financial conditions at the margin, especially for long-duration and internationally sensitive risk assets.
Gold vs Equities
risk-off
GLD +0.34% / SPY -0.84%.
Gold's relative strength confirms a hedge bid, but contained VIX and credit declines argue against panic.
Growth vs Value (factors)
risk-off
VUG -0.86% vs VLUE +0.29% — spread -1.15pp.
Investors preferred current cash flow and shorter-duration exposure as yields stayed elevated.
Momentum vs Min Vol
neutral
MTUM -0.25% vs USMV -0.61% — spread +0.36pp.
This pair was not the source of stress; the larger signal came from high beta falling 1.45% while value rose.
Cross-Sector Synthesis
The close was risk-off, but the internal message was rotation rather than liquidation. IWM lagged SPY by 50bp, value beat growth by 115bp, and both stocks and long-duration Treasuries declined. At the same time, energy beat utilities by 84bp, semiconductors beat software by 119bp, and credit ETFs slipped only about 20bp. The market is favoring current cash flow, commodity exposure and AI infrastructure while cutting rate-sensitive, consumer and software/cyber exposure.
Industry Rotation
No sub-industry completed a fresh RRG quadrant transition, so today's leadership is better treated as acceleration within existing trends. Oil & Gas E&P (+2.00% today, +8.41% over five days) has the strongest combination of price action and breadth; agricultural machinery's +3.79% move is powerful but has only 60% of constituents above the 200-day.
Explore the full industry view →
Moving-Average Events
Industry golden crosses: Application Software, Health Care Equipment, Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers, Home Furnishings; Industry 200d reclaims: Tobacco, Real Estate Services, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Agricultural & Farm Machinery, Automobile Manufacturers; Industry 200d losses: Passenger Airlines, Agricultural & Farm Machinery, Aluminum, Diversified Chemicals, Home Furnishings; Industry EMA(12/26) bull crosses: Health Care Services, Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals, Food Retail, Environmental & Facilities Services, Leisure Facilities; Industry EMA(12/26) bear crosses: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components, Interactive Media & Services, Electronic Components, Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers, Home Furnishings. Stock-level: 33 new golden crosses, 16 new death crosses across the S&P 1500 in the last 5 sessions.
News Flow
Catalysts driving the tape
108 relevant headlines across 5 sources, theme-tagged.
Headlines grouped by what's actually moving the market: geopolitics, Fed/macro, AI/tech, earnings, energy, regulation. Each headline is tagged to the sectors it most likely impacts. Urgency markers (!) indicate market-moving signals.
Geopolitics
12
Fed / Macro
12
AI / Tech
12
Earnings
12
Energy / Oil
1
China / Trade
9
Healthcare
8
CNBC Health Care Industrials Cons. Discretionary
Crypto
9
Layoffs / Labor
2
Earnings Tape
Reporting today
1 watchlist names from the EPS calendar.
Ticker Name Sector Reports Surprise
WMT Walmart Inc. Consumer Defensive 2026-08-20 —
Narrative
Sector Commentary
Active Codex task commentary grounded in the market inputs for this session.
Risk appetite weakened without becoming disorderly: SPY fell 0.84%, QQQ 0.72% and IWM 1.34%, while higher-rate pressure, consumer weakness and a defensive dollar/gold bid were offset by energy, crypto and selective AI-infrastructure strength.
Index Tape & Breadth -0.8%
The close was broad risk-off rather than a mega-cap-only air pocket: SPY -0.84%, QQQ -0.72%, DIA -1.27% and IWM -1.34%. Small caps lagged SPY by 50bp, while only 53% of the S&P 1500 universe remained above its 50-day average versus 72% above the 200-day, leaving the long-term structure healthier than the near-term tape.
Consumer & Earnings -1.6%
The clearest fundamental stress signal came from the consumer complex: WMT fell 9.15%, XLY lost 1.61%, XLP lost 1.41% and homebuilders fell more than 2%. With the 10-year yield at 4.696% and IWM lagging, the tape is penalizing rate-sensitive and household-exposed earnings risk.
AI Infrastructure vs Software +1.2%
AI exposure split sharply by business model: SMH gained 0.31% and MRVL rose 5.79%, while IGV fell 0.88%, HACK 2.24%, CRWD 5.60% and ZS 5.23%. The 119bp semi-over-software spread says investors still reward compute and connectivity exposure while compressing application and cyber risk premia.
Rates, Credit & Volatility -0.8%
Equities and duration sold together: TLT -0.82% as the 10-year yield held at 4.696%. VIX remained contained at 16.01 but was up 9.43% over five sessions; HYG -0.19% and JNK -0.20% show caution rather than a credit break.
Industry Leaders — Agricultural & Farm Machinery +3.8%
Leadership was concentrated in real assets and agriculture: Agricultural & Farm Machinery +3.79%, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals +2.80% and Oil & Gas Exploration & Production +2.00%. Oil E&P breadth was especially strong at 92% above the 50-day and 72% above the 200-day, making energy's relative strength more durable than a one-stock move.
Health Care Reversal -4.2%
Biotechnology fell 4.22% and XLV lost 1.87%, but biotech remained up 8.08% over five days with 69% of constituents above the 50-day and 96.6% above the 200-day. Treat the move as a sharp reversal inside a still-positive intermediate structure unless breadth deteriorates further.
Moving-Average Cross Events +0.0%
Industry golden crosses: Application Software, Health Care Equipment, Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers, Home Furnishings; Industry 200d reclaims: Tobacco, Real Estate Services, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Agricultural & Farm Machinery, Automobile Manufacturers; Industry 200d losses: Passenger Airlines, Agricultural & Farm Machinery, Aluminum, Diversified Chemicals, Home Furnishings; Industry EMA(12/26) bull crosses: Health Care Services, Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals, Food Retail, Environmental & Facilities Services, Leisure Facilities; Industry EMA(12/26) bear crosses: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components, Interactive Media & Services, Electronic Components, Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers, Home Furnishings.
Geopolitics +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged Geopolitics. Top items: [CNBC] Warsh faces Fed independence test as Bessent moves in on central bank's turf; [CNBC] Japanese automakers vulnerable to one-two punch of Iran war, yen rally
Fed / Macro +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged Fed/Macro. Top items: [CNBC] Warsh faces Fed independence test as Bessent moves in on central bank's turf; [CNBC] Fed minutes show inflation debates
AI / Tech +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged AI/Tech. Top items: [CNBC] World's biggest chipmaker TSMC's sales surge 45% amid buoyant AI demand; [CNBC] Grindr's AI spend is working and its pricey new tier has had some surprises: CEO
Earnings Tape +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged Earnings. Top items: [CNBC] Home Depot reaffirms guidance amid 'frozen housing market conditions'; [CNBC] Jim Cramer says Cisco’s post-earnings plunge is a buying opportunity. Here’s why
Sector Breadth
Energy
+0.27%
Real Estate
+0.20%
Materials
-0.19%
Technology
-0.29%
Utilities
-0.57%
Communication Svcs
-0.57%
Financials
-0.92%
Industrials
-1.20%
Cons. Staples
-1.41%
Cons. Discretionary
-1.61%
Health Care
-1.87%
Top Movers
COIN
COIN
+7.58%
DE
DE
+6.94%
MRVL
MRVL
+5.79%
TMO
TMO
+2.28%
DHR
DHR
+2.09%
WMT
WMT
-9.15%
ISRG
ISRG
-5.84%
CRWD
CRWD
-5.60%
ZS
ZS
-5.23%
RTX
RTX
-3.66%
Scan Output
Full Breakout Table
Composite score combines relative strength, base quality, trend structure, and stage confirmation.
# Ticker Name Sector Score RS Base Trend Stage 2 Price 52W High vs High Avg Vol Vol/Avg
1 WBS ★ 3d Webster Financial Corporation Financial Services
76.4
56.9 81.9 100.0 ✓ $77.57 $79.07 -1.9% 6.5M 4.40x
2 ARWR ★ 7d Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Healthcare
70.2
100.0 14.9 100.0 ✓ $87.47 $89.59 -2.4% 2.2M 0.45x
3 HZO ★ 7d MarineMax, Inc. Consumer Cyclical
69.7
92.5 22.1 100.0 ✓ $52.25 $52.46 -0.4% 543K 1.44x
4 NDSN Nordson Corporation Industrials
68.1
67.0 46.5 100.0 ✓ $334.70 $334.70 +0.0% 409K 1.57x
5 ROIV ★ 7d Roivant Sciences Ltd. Healthcare
67.1
98.8 7.4 100.0 ✓ $36.84 $37.40 -1.5% 5.7M 0.97x
6 OGN ★ 4d Organon & Co. Healthcare
66.2
64.8 43.6 100.0 ✓ $13.74 $13.74 +0.0% 2.6M 1.06x
7 SPHR ★ 7d Sphere Entertainment Co. Communication Services
66.1
100.0 3.3 100.0 ✓ $156.23 $176.38 -11.4% 735K 0.84x
8 VIRT Virtu Financial, Inc. Financial Services
65.3
62.9 43.1 100.0 ✓ $61.19 $66.82 -8.4% 1.4M 1.81x
9 CRL CRL Healthcare
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $291.45 $291.45 +0.0% 909K 0.93x
10 DELL ★ 5d Dell Technologies Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $434.78 $494.51 -12.1% 6.9M 0.72x
11 HPE ★ 5d Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $52.89 $59.82 -11.6% 20.1M 0.69x
12 MRNA Moderna, Inc. Healthcare
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $133.32 $174.38 -23.5% 13.0M 4.76x
13 HAE ★ 3d Haemonetics Corporation Healthcare
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $108.22 $108.41 -0.2% 888K 1.25x
14 PBF ★ 3d PBF Energy Inc. Energy
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $69.56 $75.20 -7.5% 3.0M 0.78x
15 CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Consumer Cyclical
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $106.53 $117.29 -9.2% 1.7M 0.98x