2026-08-17
Daily Report
2026-08-17
Energy led the session at +1.08%, while Communication Svcs lagged at -1.89%, with USO +2.91% setting the thematic tone.
SPY -0.47% QQQ -0.16% 15 qualifying setups
Market Signal
RISK ON
Score 0.75
Generated
2026-08-17 16:39
Static build timestamp
Leaders
Energy
Best-performing sector today
Lagging
Communication Svcs
Weakest sector on the tape
Overview
Index & Macro Snapshot
Core benchmarks, volatility, and curve shape for the session.
S&P 500
$772.67
-0.47% today · +13.70% YTD
Nasdaq 100
$729.87
-0.16% today · +19.32% YTD
Russell 2000
$304.06
-0.34% today · +22.73% YTD
Dow Jones
$534.19
-0.49% today · +11.31% YTD
VIX
15.19
-1.75% over 5d
10Y Treasury
4.72%
Long-end benchmark
2Y Treasury
3.70%
Policy-sensitive front end
2s/10s Curve
+102bps
Normal / steepening
Tape Read
What's Moving Markets Today
Daily strategist letter and the cross-sector spreads behind today's tape.
Strategist Letter · 2026-08-17
Morning Note
The tape is trading risk on (composite score +0.75), with SPY -0.47%, QQQ -0.16% and IWM -0.34% on the session. Universe breadth sits at 62% above 50-day and 72% above 200-day, and VIX prints 15.19 (-1.8% over five sessions). At the GICS sub-industry level, leadership concentrated in Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals (+5.32%), Semiconductor Materials & Equipment (+3.50%), Electronic Components (+3.40%), Oil & Gas Drilling (+2.62%). On the laggard side, Specialized Consumer Services -3.07% headed the weak list. No industries crossed into the Leading RRG quadrant in the last five sessions. Cross-asset color: the dollar (UUP) -0.04%; long bonds (TLT) -0.84%; high yield (HYG) -0.13% — credit stress tightening; crude (USO) +2.91%; gold (GLD) +1.00%; bitcoin (BITO) +2.24%. The 2s10s curve sits at +102bps. Risks worth tracking: and 200-day breaks in Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Diversified Chemicals, Tobacco; the breadth tape shows 36 new stock-level golden crosses against 19 death crosses. Catalysts in the wires: on geopolitics: 'E.l.f. Beauty sees $50 million windfall in tariff refunds as profits surge 100%' [CNBC]; on Fed / macro: 'Stocks end lower as oil pops; investors eye Fed minutes, retail earnings this week' [Investing.com Markets]; on AI / tech: 'Nvidia's stock has started to come alive. Here's 3 reasons why it can continue' [CNBC]; on energy: 'From panic to pricing in: Are markets past 'peak fear and sell-off' despite oil price surge?' [CNBC]. Positioning takeaway: lean into Energy pockets where breadth is improving and trim exposure in Communication Svcs until 200-day support is reclaimed.
Cyclicals vs Defensives
mixed
Cyclicals (-0.54%) are leading Defensives (-0.77%) by 0.23pp.
Mixed leadership — the tape can't pick a regime.
Discretionary vs Staples
risk-on
XLY -1.23% vs XLP -1.64% (spread +0.41pp).
Consumer is risk-on — the household balance-sheet trade is working.
Semis vs Software (AI capex theme)
risk-on
SMH +1.06% vs IGV -2.01% — spread +3.07pp.
Hardware/infrastructure leg of AI is bid — capex theme intact, hyperscaler spend cycle on.
Energy vs Utilities
neutral
XLE +1.08% vs XLU -0.29% — spread +1.37pp.
Inflation reflation/commodity bid; favours real-asset exposure and pricing-power names.
Stocks vs Bonds (SPY vs TLT)
risk-off
SPY -0.47% AND TLT -0.84% — both red.
Cross-asset stress — equities and duration selling in tandem; classic liquidity drain.
Dollar vs Equities
neutral
UUP -0.04% / SPY -0.47%.
Dollar weak with equities down = unusual; could be growth scare in US specifically.
Gold vs Equities
risk-off
GLD +1.00% / SPY -0.47%.
Defensive rotation into gold while equities sell — flight-to-quality, watch credit too.
Growth vs Value (factors)
neutral
VUG -0.53% vs VLUE -0.02% — spread -0.51pp.
Value factor leading — short-duration / cash-flow names bid; cyclical / re-flation tape.
Momentum vs Min Vol
risk-on
MTUM +1.53% vs USMV -0.72% — spread +2.25pp.
Trend-followers in control — leadership names extend, junk reflation often follows.
Cross-Sector Synthesis
The cross-sector tape is leaning risk-on. Cyclicals vs Defensives: Cyclicals (-0.54%) are leading Defensives (-0.77%) by 0.23pp. Mixed leadership — the tape can't pick a regime. Discretionary vs Staples: XLY -1.23% vs XLP -1.64% (spread +0.41pp). Consumer is risk-on — the household balance-sheet trade is working. Semis vs Software (AI capex theme): SMH +1.06% vs IGV -2.01% — spread +3.07pp. Hardware/infrastructure leg of AI is bid — capex theme intact, hyperscaler spend cycle on.
Moving-Average Events
Industry golden crosses: Health Care Equipment, Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers, Home Furnishings, Specialty Stores; Industry 200d reclaims: Packaged Foods & Meats, Tobacco, Education Services, Electric Utilities, Air Freight & Logistics; Industry 200d losses: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Diversified Chemicals, Tobacco, Home Furnishings, Air Freight & Logistics; Industry EMA(12/26) bull crosses: Agricultural Products & Services, Gas Utilities, Food Retail, Managed Health Care, Oil & Gas Equipment & Services; Industry EMA(12/26) bear crosses: Automotive Retail, Passenger Airlines, Commodity Chemicals, Leisure Products, Office REITs. Stock-level: 36 new golden crosses, 19 new death crosses across the S&P 1500 in the last 5 sessions.
News Flow
Catalysts driving the tape
108 relevant headlines across 5 sources, theme-tagged.
Headlines grouped by what's actually moving the market: geopolitics, Fed/macro, AI/tech, earnings, energy, regulation. Each headline is tagged to the sectors it most likely impacts. Urgency markers (!) indicate market-moving signals.
Geopolitics
12
Fed / Macro
6
Investing.com Markets ! MED Energy Cons. Discretionary
Investing.com Markets Cons. Staples
AI / Tech
12
Earnings
12
Energy / Oil
3
China / Trade
9
Healthcare
6
CNBC Health Care Industrials Cons. Discretionary
Crypto
11
Regulation
4
Layoffs / Labor
1
Narrative
Sector Commentary
OpenAI commentary grounded in the market inputs for this session.
Energy led the session at +1.08%, while Communication Svcs lagged at -1.89%, with USO +2.91% setting the thematic tone.
Energy +1.1%
Energy led the sector leaderboard at +1.08% as the strongest large-cap gainers were MRVL +5.54%, LRCX +3.45%, PSX +2.97%.
Communication Svcs -1.9%
Communication Svcs was the weakest major group at -1.89% with pressure concentrated in NOW -5.08%, NKE -4.03%, SMCI -3.92%.
Commodities — Crude Oil +2.9%
USO moved +2.91% on the day and +3.47% over 5 days, giving the market a clear read on thematic leadership.
Factor & Regime +1.5%
Momentum led the factor complex at +1.53% while Low Vol trailed at -0.81%. Market signal registered RISK ON at +0.75.
Industry Leaders — Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals +5.3%
At the GICS sub-industry level, leadership came from Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals +5.32%, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment +3.50%, Electronic Components +3.40%. Universe breadth: 62% of S&P 1500 names above their 50-day MA, 72% above the 200-day.
Industry Laggards — Specialized Consumer Services -3.1%
Weakest sub-industries today: Specialized Consumer Services -3.07%, Managed Health Care -2.89%, Apparel Retail -2.89%.
Moving-Average Cross Events +0.0%
Industry golden crosses: Health Care Equipment, Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers, Home Furnishings, Specialty Stores; Industry 200d reclaims: Packaged Foods & Meats, Tobacco, Education Services, Electric Utilities, Air Freight & Logistics; Industry 200d losses: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Diversified Chemicals, Tobacco, Home Furnishings, Air Freight & Logistics; Industry EMA(12/26) bull crosses: Agricultural Products & Services, Gas Utilities, Food Retail, Managed Health Care, Oil & Gas Equipment & Services; Industry EMA(12/26) bear crosses: Automotive Retail, Passenger Airlines, Commodity Chemicals, Leisure Products, Office REITs.
Geopolitics +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged Geopolitics. Top items: [CNBC] E.l.f. Beauty sees $50 million windfall in tariff refunds as profits surge 100%; [CNBC] Japanese automakers vulnerable to one-two punch of Iran war, yen rally
Fed / Macro +0.0%
6 active headlines tagged Fed/Macro. Top items: [Investing.com Markets] Stocks end lower as oil pops; investors eye Fed minutes, retail earnings this week; [CNBC] 30-year Treasury yield tops 5.31%, the highest in 19 years
AI / Tech +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged AI/Tech. Top items: [CNBC] Nvidia's stock has started to come alive. Here's 3 reasons why it can continue; [CNBC] World's biggest chipmaker TSMC's sales surge 45% amid buoyant AI demand
Earnings Tape +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged Earnings. Top items: [CNBC] Jim Cramer says Cisco’s post-earnings plunge is a buying opportunity. Here’s why; [CNBC] Cerebras stock plunges 14% after second earnings report following IPO
Sector Breadth
Energy
+1.08%
Technology
+0.16%
Industrials
-0.10%
Health Care
-0.19%
Utilities
-0.29%
Materials
-0.57%
Real Estate
-0.97%
Financials
-1.00%
Cons. Discretionary
-1.23%
Cons. Staples
-1.64%
Communication Svcs
-1.89%
Top Movers
MRVL
MRVL
+5.54%
LRCX
LRCX
+3.45%
PSX
PSX
+2.97%
CAT
CAT
+2.93%
EOG
EOG
+2.48%
NOW
NOW
-5.08%
NKE
NKE
-4.03%
SMCI
SMCI
-3.92%
ACN
ACN
-3.91%
WDAY
WDAY
-3.77%
Scan Output
Full Breakout Table
Composite score combines relative strength, base quality, trend structure, and stage confirmation.
# Ticker Name Sector Score RS Base Trend Stage 2 Price 52W High vs High Avg Vol Vol/Avg
1 HZO ★ 4d MarineMax, Inc. Consumer Cyclical
79.2
91.7 50.0 100.0 ✓ $52.25 $52.46 -0.4% 520K 2.14x
2 EAT ★ 4d Brinker International, Inc. Consumer Cyclical
70.4
95.0 21.2 100.0 ✓ $241.71 $245.89 -1.7% 1.1M 1.42x
3 ARWR ★ 4d Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Healthcare
70.2
100.0 14.9 100.0 ✓ $88.70 $89.59 -1.0% 2.2M 0.45x
4 SLAB ★ 4d Silicon Laboratories Inc. Technology
67.3
64.6 47.1 100.0 ✓ $219.29 $220.34 -0.5% 394K 0.54x
5 ROIV ★ 4d Roivant Sciences Ltd. Healthcare
66.3
96.3 7.9 100.0 ✓ $36.24 $36.81 -1.5% 5.6M 1.06x
6 SPHR ★ 4d Sphere Entertainment Co. Communication Services
66.1
100.0 3.3 100.0 ✓ $171.60 $176.38 -2.7% 736K 1.09x
7 OGN Organon & Co. Healthcare
65.8
63.7 43.8 100.0 ✓ $13.70 $13.72 -0.1% 2.5M 1.13x
8 CHEF The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. Consumer Defensive
65.6
76.9 28.2 100.0 ✓ $110.57 $115.35 -4.1% 648K 1.56x
9 LQDA Liquidia Corporation Healthcare
65.5
98.6 21.0 75.0 ✓ $77.70 $91.03 -14.6% 2.0M 1.42x
10 CRL Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. Healthcare
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $286.64 $286.64 +0.0% 894K 1.10x
11 DELL Dell Technologies Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $479.81 $494.51 -3.0% 7.2M 0.79x
12 HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $57.61 $59.82 -3.7% 21.0M 0.76x
13 TER Teradyne, Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $443.14 $483.84 -8.4% 4.4M 0.53x
14 ATI ATI Inc. Industrials
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $231.78 $231.78 +0.0% 1.7M 0.72x
15 ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $351.16 $378.45 -7.2% 1.3M 0.85x