2026-08-14
Daily Report
2026-08-14
Energy led the session at +1.39%, while Health Care lagged at -0.60%, with HACK -3.04% setting the thematic tone.
SPY -0.20% QQQ -0.14% 15 qualifying setups
Market Signal
RISK ON
Score 0.80
Generated
2026-08-14 16:38
Static build timestamp
Leaders
Energy
Best-performing sector today
Lagging
Health Care
Weakest sector on the tape
Overview
Index & Macro Snapshot
Core benchmarks, volatility, and curve shape for the session.
S&P 500
$776.34
-0.20% today · +14.24% YTD
Nasdaq 100
$731.07
-0.14% today · +19.52% YTD
Russell 2000
$305.09
+0.52% today · +23.14% YTD
Dow Jones
$536.80
-0.21% today · +11.86% YTD
VIX
14.25
-4.36% over 5d
10Y Treasury
4.70%
Long-end benchmark
2Y Treasury
3.70%
Policy-sensitive front end
2s/10s Curve
+100bps
Normal / steepening
Tape Read
What's Moving Markets Today
Daily strategist letter and the cross-sector spreads behind today's tape.
Strategist Letter · 2026-08-14
Morning Note
The tape is trading risk on (composite score +0.80), with SPY -0.20%, QQQ -0.14% and IWM +0.52% on the session. Universe breadth sits at 66% above 50-day and 75% above 200-day, and VIX prints 14.25 (-4.4% over five sessions). At the GICS sub-industry level, leadership concentrated in Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals (+4.90%), Coal & Consumable Fuels (+3.07%), Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (+3.00%), Alternative Carriers (+2.80%). On the laggard side, Systems Software -3.01% headed the weak list. No industries crossed into the Leading RRG quadrant in the last five sessions. Cross-asset color: the dollar (UUP) -0.25%; long bonds (TLT) -0.67%; high yield (HYG) -0.10% — credit stress tightening; crude (USO) +1.26%; gold (GLD) +0.63%; bitcoin (BITO) -0.70%. The 2s10s curve sits at +100bps. Risks worth tracking: and 200-day breaks in Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Tobacco, Mortgage REITs; the breadth tape shows 36 new stock-level golden crosses against 15 death crosses. Catalysts in the wires: on geopolitics: 'The Iran war risks bringing the G7's fastest-growing economy to a halt' [CNBC]; on Fed / macro: 'Omega CEO Leon Cooperman: 'I'm very negative on the bond market'' [CNBC]; on AI / tech: 'World's biggest chipmaker TSMC's sales surge 45% amid buoyant AI demand' [CNBC]; on energy: 'From panic to pricing in: Are markets past 'peak fear and sell-off' despite oil price surge?' [CNBC]. Positioning takeaway: lean into Energy pockets where breadth is improving and trim exposure in Health Care until 200-day support is reclaimed.
Cyclicals vs Defensives
mixed
Cyclicals (-0.10%) are lagging Defensives (+0.11%) by 0.21pp.
Mixed leadership — the tape can't pick a regime.
Discretionary vs Staples
risk-off
XLY -0.21% vs XLP +0.10% (spread -0.31pp).
Consumer rotating defensive — Staples bid is a late-cycle warning.
Semis vs Software (AI capex theme)
risk-on
SMH -0.22% vs IGV -2.07% — spread +1.85pp.
Hardware/infrastructure leg of AI is bid — capex theme intact, hyperscaler spend cycle on.
Energy vs Utilities
neutral
XLE +1.39% vs XLU +0.61% — spread +0.78pp.
Inflation reflation/commodity bid; favours real-asset exposure and pricing-power names.
Small caps vs Large caps (IWM vs SPY)
risk-on
IWM +0.52% vs SPY -0.20% — spread +0.72pp.
Rally is broadening — small caps participating; risk-on with breadth confirmation.
Stocks vs Bonds (SPY vs TLT)
risk-off
SPY -0.20% AND TLT -0.67% — both red.
Cross-asset stress — equities and duration selling in tandem; classic liquidity drain.
Dollar vs Equities
neutral
UUP -0.25% / SPY -0.20%.
Dollar weak with equities down = unusual; could be growth scare in US specifically.
Gold vs Equities
risk-off
GLD +0.63% / SPY -0.20%.
Defensive rotation into gold while equities sell — flight-to-quality, watch credit too.
Credit vs Treasuries (HYG vs IEF, 5d)
neutral
HYG 5d +0.13% vs IEF 5d -0.14% — spread +0.27pp.
Credit and rates roughly in line — no credit stress signal.
Growth vs Value (factors)
neutral
VUG -0.43% vs VLUE +0.59% — spread -1.02pp.
Value factor leading — short-duration / cash-flow names bid; cyclical / re-flation tape.
Momentum vs Min Vol
risk-on
MTUM +0.37% vs USMV -0.24% — spread +0.61pp.
Trend-followers in control — leadership names extend, junk reflation often follows.
Cross-Sector Synthesis
The cross-sector tape is mixed — neither risk-on nor risk-off has the upper hand. Cyclicals vs Defensives: Cyclicals (-0.10%) are lagging Defensives (+0.11%) by 0.21pp. Mixed leadership — the tape can't pick a regime. Discretionary vs Staples: XLY -0.21% vs XLP +0.10% (spread -0.31pp). Consumer rotating defensive — Staples bid is a late-cycle warning. Semis vs Software (AI capex theme): SMH -0.22% vs IGV -2.07% — spread +1.85pp. Hardware/infrastructure leg of AI is bid — capex theme intact, hyperscaler spend cycle on.
Moving-Average Events
Industry golden crosses: Home Furnishings, Specialty Stores, Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers; Industry 200d reclaims: Tobacco, Education Services, Home Furnishings, Electric Utilities, Diversified Chemicals; Industry 200d losses: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Tobacco, Mortgage REITs, Home Furnishings, Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages; Industry EMA(12/26) bull crosses: Agricultural Products & Services, Gas Utilities, Food Retail, Managed Health Care, Oil & Gas Equipment & Services; Industry EMA(12/26) bear crosses: Leisure Products, Office REITs, Commodity Chemicals, Research & Consulting Services, Health Care REITs. Stock-level: 36 new golden crosses, 15 new death crosses across the S&P 1500 in the last 5 sessions.
News Flow
Catalysts driving the tape
112 relevant headlines across 5 sources, theme-tagged.
Headlines grouped by what's actually moving the market: geopolitics, Fed/macro, AI/tech, earnings, energy, regulation. Each headline is tagged to the sectors it most likely impacts. Urgency markers (!) indicate market-moving signals.
Geopolitics
12
Fed / Macro
4
AI / Tech
12
Earnings
12
Energy / Oil
3
China / Trade
6
Healthcare
8
CNBC Health Care Industrials Cons. Discretionary
CNBC Financials Health Care Industrials
Crypto
10
Mergers & Acquisitions
1
Regulation
6
Layoffs / Labor
1
Narrative
Sector Commentary
OpenAI commentary grounded in the market inputs for this session.
Energy led the session at +1.39%, while Health Care lagged at -0.60%, with HACK -3.04% setting the thematic tone.
Energy +1.4%
Energy led the sector leaderboard at +1.39% as the strongest large-cap gainers were SLB +3.28%, TXN +2.25%, ADI +2.16%.
Health Care -0.6%
Health Care was the weakest major group at -0.60% with pressure concentrated in AVGO -5.94%, CRWD -3.80%, WDAY -3.76%.
AI / Tech — Cybersecurity -3.0%
HACK moved -3.04% on the day and +2.39% over 5 days, giving the market a clear read on thematic leadership.
Factor & Regime +0.4%
Momentum led the factor complex at +0.37% while Low Vol trailed at +0.17%. Market signal registered RISK ON at +0.80.
Industry Leaders — Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals +4.9%
At the GICS sub-industry level, leadership came from Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals +4.90%, Coal & Consumable Fuels +3.07%, Oil & Gas Equipment & Services +3.00%. Universe breadth: 66% of S&P 1500 names above their 50-day MA, 75% above the 200-day.
Industry Laggards — Systems Software -3.0%
Weakest sub-industries today: Systems Software -3.01%, Human Resource & Employment Services -1.96%, Application Software -1.93%.
Moving-Average Cross Events +0.0%
Industry golden crosses: Home Furnishings, Specialty Stores, Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers; Industry 200d reclaims: Tobacco, Education Services, Home Furnishings, Electric Utilities, Diversified Chemicals; Industry 200d losses: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Tobacco, Mortgage REITs, Home Furnishings, Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages; Industry EMA(12/26) bull crosses: Agricultural Products & Services, Gas Utilities, Food Retail, Managed Health Care, Oil & Gas Equipment & Services; Industry EMA(12/26) bear crosses: Leisure Products, Office REITs, Commodity Chemicals, Research & Consulting Services, Health Care REITs.
Geopolitics +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged Geopolitics. Top items: [CNBC] The Iran war risks bringing the G7's fastest-growing economy to a halt; [CNBC] E.l.f. Beauty sees $50 million windfall in tariff refunds as profits surge 100%
Fed / Macro +0.0%
4 active headlines tagged Fed/Macro. Top items: [CNBC] Omega CEO Leon Cooperman: 'I'm very negative on the bond market'; [CNBC] Recapping Birkenstock and Tapestry's quarterly results
AI / Tech +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged AI/Tech. Top items: [CNBC] World's biggest chipmaker TSMC's sales surge 45% amid buoyant AI demand; [CNBC] SpaceX falls 13% after AI spending surge rattles investors as share unlock looms
Earnings Tape +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged Earnings. Top items: [CNBC] Jim Cramer says Cisco’s post-earnings plunge is a buying opportunity. Here’s why; [CNBC] Cerebras stock plunges 14% after second earnings report following IPO
Sector Breadth
Energy
+1.39%
Utilities
+0.61%
Materials
+0.44%
Industrials
+0.39%
Communication Svcs
+0.36%
Real Estate
+0.33%
Cons. Staples
+0.10%
Financials
-0.17%
Cons. Discretionary
-0.21%
Technology
-0.40%
Health Care
-0.60%
Top Movers
SLB
SLB
+3.28%
TXN
TXN
+2.25%
ADI
ADI
+2.16%
SMCI
SMCI
+1.74%
CI
CI
+1.64%
AVGO
AVGO
-5.94%
CRWD
CRWD
-3.80%
WDAY
WDAY
-3.76%
COIN
COIN
-3.53%
PANW
PANW
-2.96%
Scan Output
Full Breakout Table
Composite score combines relative strength, base quality, trend structure, and stage confirmation.
# Ticker Name Sector Score RS Base Trend Stage 2 Price 52W High vs High Avg Vol Vol/Avg
1 HZO ★ 3d MarineMax, Inc. Consumer Cyclical
79.9
93.5 50.0 100.0 ✓ $52.02 $52.46 -0.8% 509K 4.88x
2 LFST ★ 3d LifeStance Health Group, Inc. Healthcare
74.7
94.2 34.3 100.0 ✓ $12.42 $12.42 +0.0% 3.9M 1.69x
3 FA ★ 3d First Advantage Corporation Industrials
70.5
69.9 50.0 100.0 ✓ $21.58 $24.12 -10.5% 2.3M 2.07x
4 QNST ★ 3d QuinStreet, Inc. Communication Services
70.3
87.5 29.5 100.0 ✓ $20.50 $22.02 -6.9% 829K 1.59x
5 ARWR ★ 3d Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Healthcare
70.1
100.0 14.5 100.0 ✓ $86.64 $89.59 -3.3% 2.2M 0.44x
6 INVX ★ 3d Innovex International, Inc. Energy
70.1
69.2 49.7 100.0 ✓ $31.24 $31.63 -1.2% 549K 1.84x
7 EAT ★ 3d Brinker International, Inc. Consumer Cyclical
69.0
89.6 23.3 100.0 ✓ $237.15 $245.89 -3.6% 1.1M 1.47x
8 SLAB ★ 3d Silicon Laboratories Inc. Technology
66.7
63.1 47.1 100.0 ✓ $218.41 $220.34 -0.9% 395K 0.53x
9 HP HP Energy
66.7
80.8 26.7 100.0 ✓ $44.20 $44.20 +0.0% 1.3M 1.53x
10 ROIV ★ 3d Roivant Sciences Ltd. Healthcare
66.2
95.9 7.9 100.0 ✓ $36.20 $36.81 -1.7% 5.6M 1.04x
11 SPHR ★ 3d Sphere Entertainment Co. Communication Services
66.1
100.0 3.3 100.0 ✓ $168.00 $176.38 -4.8% 747K 1.08x
12 DELL Dell Technologies Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $490.81 $494.51 -0.7% 7.3M 0.75x
13 HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $58.71 $59.82 -1.9% 21.5M 0.79x
14 TER TER Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $418.79 $483.84 -13.4% 4.4M 0.49x
15 ATI ATI Inc. Industrials
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $228.48 $230.43 -0.8% 1.7M 0.76x