2026-08-04
Daily Report
2026-08-04
AI infrastructure and software earnings drove a broad risk-on rebound: QQQ rose 3.40%, SPY 1.80%, and IWM 1.85%, while 70.5% of the refreshed 1,143-name usable universe held above its 50-day average and 73.8% above its 200-day. Falling crude and firmer Treasuries eased the inflation-risk premium, but the strongest gains remained concentrated in technology hardware, semiconductors, and high-beta momentum.
SPY +1.80% QQQ +3.40% 15 qualifying setups
Market Signal
RISK ON
Score 0.85
Generated
2026-08-04 16:41
Static build timestamp
Leaders
Technology
Best-performing sector today
Lagging
Utilities
Weakest sector on the tape
Overview
Index & Macro Snapshot
Core benchmarks, volatility, and curve shape for the session.
S&P 500
$771.33
+1.80% today · +13.50% YTD
Nasdaq 100
$723.85
+3.40% today · +18.34% YTD
Russell 2000
$301.71
+1.85% today · +21.78% YTD
Dow Jones
$540.43
+1.73% today · +12.61% YTD
VIX
16.50
-9.39% over 5d
10Y Treasury
4.63%
Long-end benchmark
2Y Treasury
3.73%
Policy-sensitive front end
2s/10s Curve
+90bps
Normal / steepening
Tape Read
What's Moving Markets Today
Daily strategist letter and the cross-sector spreads behind today's tape.
Strategist Letter · 2026-08-04
Morning Note
Close read: SPY finished at 771.33 (+1.80%), QQQ 723.85 (+3.40%), and IWM 301.71 (+1.85%). Technology +4.98% dominated, while Utilities -0.56%, Energy -0.46%, and Health Care -0.09% lagged. The 10-year yield was 4.627%, the 2s10s curve +90bp, VIX 16.50, TLT +0.77%, HYG +0.30%, and crude -5.19%. Positioning implication: maintain exposure to AI infrastructure and momentum leaders, but add only where group breadth improves or price consolidates; avoid extrapolating one session into a full consumer or defensive unwind.
Cyclicals vs defensives
risk-on
Cyclicals +1.92% versus defensives -0.02%, a +1.94pp spread.
Risk appetite broadened beyond mega-cap technology, supporting a tactical pro-cyclical stance.
Semiconductors vs software
risk-on
SMH +5.55% versus IGV +4.70%, a +0.85pp hardware lead.
The AI trade favored physical infrastructure while software also participated, improving the quality of the rebound.
Stocks, bonds, and oil
risk-on
SPY +1.80%, TLT +0.77%, and USO -5.19%.
Lower energy risk reduced the inflation premium and allowed duration and equities to rally together.
Discretionary vs staples
neutral
XLY +0.07% versus XLP +0.60%, a -0.53pp spread.
Consumer cyclicality did not confirm the broader risk-on tape; keep demand-sensitive exposures selective.
Momentum vs low volatility
risk-on
MTUM +3.83% versus SPLV +0.24%, a +3.59pp spread.
The session rewarded established leadership and punished defensiveness, raising chase risk after the sharp one-day move.
Cross-Sector Synthesis
The tape was tactically pro-cyclical but not indiscriminate. Cyclicals beat defensives by 1.94 percentage points, high beta and momentum led, and both stocks and bonds rallied as crude fell. Yet Staples +0.60% beat Discretionary +0.07%, and several health-care and real-estate names populated the loser list; the market rewarded AI earnings and rate relief more than it endorsed every growth-sensitive industry.
Industry Rotation
The refreshed industry scan covered 113 groups and 1,143 usable constituents. Electronic Manufacturing Services, Electronic Components, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Technology Hardware, and Semiconductors led; Independent Power Producers, Trading Companies & Distributors, Research & Consulting Services, Industrial REITs, and Oil & Gas E&P lagged. Communications Equipment showed the strongest mix of price leadership and internal breadth at 80% above the 50-day and 100% above the 200-day.
Explore the full industry view →
Moving-Average Events
Three industry golden crosses printed in Paper & Plastic Packaging, Interactive Home Entertainment, and Life Sciences Tools & Services; Broadcasting registered the lone death cross. No industry rotation breakout was confirmed. Treat the technology surge as a high-velocity rebound requiring follow-through rather than a completed rotation signal.
News Flow
Catalysts driving the tape
120 relevant headlines across 5 sources, theme-tagged.
Headlines grouped by what's actually moving the market: geopolitics, Fed/macro, AI/tech, earnings, energy, regulation. Each headline is tagged to the sectors it most likely impacts. Urgency markers (!) indicate market-moving signals.
Geopolitics
11
CNBC ! MED Technology Industrials
Fed / Macro
8
AI / Tech
12
Seeking Alpha Markets ! MED Technology Industrials
Earnings
12
Energy / Oil
6
China / Trade
4
Healthcare
9
CNBC Health Care Industrials Cons. Discretionary
Crypto
11
Mergers & Acquisitions
1
Layoffs / Labor
1
Earnings Tape
Reporting today
6 watchlist names from the EPS calendar.
Ticker Name Sector Reports Surprise
AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Technology 2026-08-04 —
PFE Pfizer, Inc. Healthcare 2026-08-04 —
MRK Merck & Company, Inc. Healthcare 2026-08-04 —
MCD McDonald's Corporation Consumer Cyclical 2026-08-04 —
CAT Caterpillar, Inc. Industrials 2026-08-04 —
BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. Common St Consumer Cyclical 2026-08-04 —
Narrative
Sector Commentary
Active Codex task commentary grounded in the market inputs for this session.
AI infrastructure and software earnings drove a broad risk-on rebound: QQQ rose 3.40%, SPY 1.80%, and IWM 1.85%, while 70.5% of the refreshed 1,143-name usable universe held above its 50-day average and 73.8% above its 200-day. Falling crude and firmer Treasuries eased the inflation-risk premium, but the strongest gains remained concentrated in technology hardware, semiconductors, and high-beta momentum.
Technology leadership +5.0%
Technology led all sectors at +4.98%. PLTR +29.45%, ARM +17.36%, MRVL +12.80%, INTC +10.84%, and SMCI +10.65% show that the bid extended from software into chips and systems rather than resting on one mega-cap.
AI infrastructure +5.5%
SMH gained 5.55% and IGV 4.70%. At the sub-industry level, Electronic Manufacturing Services +8.89%, Electronic Components +8.24%, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment +7.97%, and Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals +7.95% confirm an AI-capex-led tape.
Macro relief -5.2%
Crude exposure fell 5.19% while TLT rose 0.77%, SPY rose 1.80%, and VIX held at 16.50. The joint equity-and-duration rally is consistent with a partial unwind of the geopolitical inflation premium and easier financial conditions, not a growth scare.
Factor confirmation +3.9%
High Beta +3.89% and Momentum +3.83% decisively beat Low Vol +0.24%. The quantitative signal registered RISK ON at +0.85, with positive contributions from the curve, breadth, trend, credit, and volatility.
Breadth caveat +70.5%
Aggregate breadth was constructive at 70.5% above the 50-day and 73.8% above the 200-day, but short-term participation inside Semiconductors, Semiconductor Equipment, and Electronic Manufacturing Services was only 17.9%, 27.3%, and 14.3% above the 50-day. This is a powerful rebound inside longer-term leaders, not yet a uniformly repaired group.
Breakout watch +78.0%
EA led the refreshed setup list with a 78.0 score and 3.92x five-day volume ratio; FOSL, SPHR, AMCX, and CAKE followed. The scanner retained 1,204 usable price histories from 1,226 current-date caches against a 1,411-symbol fetched universe; the industry-breadth layer mapped 1,143 constituents. Rankings are valid within the analyzed set but are not a complete S&P 1500 census.
Sector Breadth
Technology
+4.98%
Materials
+1.94%
Industrials
+1.77%
Financials
+0.87%
Communication Svcs
+0.63%
Cons. Staples
+0.60%
Cons. Discretionary
+0.07%
Real Estate
-0.02%
Health Care
-0.09%
Energy
-0.46%
Utilities
-0.56%
Top Movers
PLTR
PLTR
+29.45%
ARM
ARM
+17.36%
MRVL
MRVL
+12.80%
INTC
INTC
+10.84%
SMCI
SMCI
+10.65%
PLD
PLD
-3.54%
HUM
HUM
-3.30%
CI
CI
-2.84%
NKE
NKE
-2.60%
AMZN
AMZN
-2.32%
Scan Output
Full Breakout Table
Composite score combines relative strength, base quality, trend structure, and stage confirmation.
# Ticker Name Sector Score RS Base Trend Stage 2 Price 52W High vs High Avg Vol Vol/Avg
1 EA ★ 4d EA Communication Services
78.0
52.0 92.1 100.0 ✓ $209.70 $209.91 -0.1% 3.3M 3.92x
2 FOSL Fossil Group, Inc. Consumer Cyclical
76.9
100.0 34.1 100.0 ✓ $6.09 $6.09 +0.0% 911K 1.68x
3 SPHR Sphere Entertainment Co. Communication Services
75.3
100.0 29.3 100.0 ✓ $158.54 $173.03 -8.4% 724K 1.47x
4 AMCX AMC Global Media Inc. Communication Services
74.4
78.4 51.5 100.0 ✓ $11.40 $11.40 +0.0% 625K 2.39x
5 CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Consumer Cyclical
73.7
90.9 35.3 100.0 ✓ $105.83 $105.83 +0.0% 1.5M 1.71x
6 FTRE Fortrea Holdings Inc. Healthcare
73.0
92.2 31.8 100.0 ✓ $17.99 $20.70 -13.1% 1.5M 1.64x
7 NEOG Neogen Corporation Healthcare
72.6
88.2 35.1 100.0 ✓ $11.81 $12.04 -1.9% 2.3M 1.70x
8 PBF PBF Energy Inc. Energy
72.5
97.9 23.9 100.0 ✓ $65.89 $73.10 -9.9% 2.9M 1.48x
9 ARWR ★ 6d Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Healthcare
69.3
100.0 12.2 100.0 ✓ $89.59 $89.59 +0.0% 2.3M 0.70x
10 DD DD Basic Materials
69.2
57.9 78.0 75.0 ✓ $142.93 $153.36 -6.8% 1.5M 2.02x
11 BAX Baxter International Inc. Healthcare
69.1
78.3 36.4 100.0 ✓ $28.35 $28.35 +0.0% 6.9M 1.73x
12 CRI CRI Consumer Cyclical
68.4
66.4 48.3 100.0 ✓ $39.80 $43.75 -9.0% 973K 1.80x
13 PHIN PHINIA Inc. Consumer Cyclical
67.2
60.9 50.9 100.0 ✓ $79.92 $85.16 -6.2% 395K 1.56x
14 LAD LAD Consumer Cyclical
67.0
61.2 50.0 100.0 ✓ $370.99 $427.48 -13.2% 330K 2.31x
15 MBIN Merchants Bancorp Financial Services
67.0
70.3 39.7 100.0 ✓ $55.60 $55.72 -0.2% 171K 1.48x