2026-08-03
Daily Report
2026-08-03
The tape delivered a broad risk-on rebound as a 5.46% drop in crude relieved the inflation tail: QQQ rose 1.76%, IWM 1.72% and SPY 1.42%, with small caps participating and VIX at 15.86. The quality of the move was better than a narrow megacap squeeze, but leadership still carried a cap-growth signature—software rose 3.00% versus semiconductors at 0.91%—while the 10-year yield remained elevated at 4.686%.
SPY +1.42% QQQ +1.76% 15 qualifying setups
Market Signal
RISK ON
Score 0.85
Generated
2026-08-03 16:40
Static build timestamp
Leaders
Communication Svcs
Best-performing sector today
Lagging
Energy
Weakest sector on the tape
Overview
Index & Macro Snapshot
Core benchmarks, volatility, and curve shape for the session.
S&P 500
$757.67
+1.42% today · +11.49% YTD
Nasdaq 100
$700.07
+1.76% today · +14.45% YTD
Russell 2000
$296.22
+1.72% today · +19.56% YTD
Dow Jones
$531.22
+1.32% today · +10.69% YTD
VIX
15.86
-15.05% over 5d
10Y Treasury
4.69%
Long-end benchmark
2Y Treasury
3.70%
Policy-sensitive front end
2s/10s Curve
+99bps
Normal / steepening
Tape Read
What's Moving Markets Today
Daily strategist letter and the cross-sector spreads behind today's tape.
Strategist Letter · 2026-08-03
Morning Note
Close view: maintain a tactical risk-on bias with preference for software, cloud, cybersecurity, communications platforms and airline exposure where breadth confirms. Avoid treating the oil decline as a completed Energy trend reversal, and do not chase the weakest-breadth electronic-component spike. Confirmation over the next several sessions requires IWM relative strength, breadth above 60%, VIX below 18 and no decisive credit deterioration.
Cyclicals versus defensives
risk-on
Cyclicals +1.50% versus defensives -0.04%, a +1.53pp spread.
The tape rewarded operating-cycle and risk exposure rather than safety.
Small caps versus large caps
risk-on
IWM +1.72% versus SPY +1.42%, a +0.30pp spread.
Breadth extended beyond the largest index weights.
Software versus semiconductors
selective
IGV +3.00% versus SMH +0.91%, a +2.09pp software advantage.
Application and monetization exposure led the AI complex; infrastructure leadership was not uniform.
Energy versus airlines
oil-relief
XLE -1.28% while JETS rose 4.44% as USO fell 5.46%.
Lower fuel prices shifted near-term earnings sensitivity from producers and refiners toward fuel-consuming cyclicals.
Equities versus duration
mixed
SPY +1.42% while TLT slipped 0.07% and the 10-year yield remained at 4.686%.
The equity bid was driven more by risk appetite and oil relief than by falling discount rates.
Cross-Sector Synthesis
The session was broadly risk-on: cyclicals beat defensives by 1.53 percentage points, discretionary beat staples by 2.05 points, IWM beat SPY by 0.30 points, and growth beat value by 1.28 points. The important exception was AI-capex leadership: software beat semiconductors by 2.09 points, so this was not a uniform infrastructure bid.
Industry Rotation
No industry entered a new Leading RRG quadrant in the last five sessions. One-day leaders were Electronic Components, Internet Services & Infrastructure and Passenger Airlines, while Fertilizers and Agricultural Chemicals plus refining and midstream lagged. Passenger Airlines offered the cleanest internal breadth at 100% above both the 50- and 200-day averages.
Explore the full industry view →
Moving-Average Events
Three industry golden crosses appeared in Paper and Plastic Packaging Products and Materials, Interactive Home Entertainment, and Consumer Finance. Across usable S&P 1500 constituents, 17 recent golden crosses versus 5 death crosses favored improving trend breadth, though scanner input failures reduce confidence in complete-universe counts.
News Flow
Catalysts driving the tape
122 relevant headlines across 5 sources, theme-tagged.
Headlines grouped by what's actually moving the market: geopolitics, Fed/macro, AI/tech, earnings, energy, regulation. Each headline is tagged to the sectors it most likely impacts. Urgency markers (!) indicate market-moving signals.
Geopolitics
12
Fed / Macro
11
AI / Tech
12
Earnings
12
Energy / Oil
8
China / Trade
6
Healthcare
5
Crypto
11
Mergers & Acquisitions
1
Layoffs / Labor
2
Narrative
Sector Commentary
Active Codex task commentary grounded in the market inputs for this session.
The tape delivered a broad risk-on rebound as a 5.46% drop in crude relieved the inflation tail: QQQ rose 1.76%, IWM 1.72% and SPY 1.42%, with small caps participating and VIX at 15.86. The quality of the move was better than a narrow megacap squeeze, but leadership still carried a cap-growth signature—software rose 3.00% versus semiconductors at 0.91%—while the 10-year yield remained elevated at 4.686%.
Breadth and regime +1.7%
IWM outpaced SPY by 30bp and 63.5% of usable S&P 1500 constituents were above their 50-day average, while 70.4% were above the 200-day. The quantitative composite scored +0.85 Risk On; 17 recent stock-level golden crosses versus 5 death crosses add confirmation.
Cap growth and software +3.0%
Communication Services led at +2.86%; IGV software gained 3.00%, WCLD cloud 3.07% and HACK cybersecurity 2.68%, while SMH semiconductors rose only 0.91%. That gap says the session rewarded monetization and application-layer duration more than uniform AI infrastructure exposure.
Oil relief -5.5%
USO fell 5.46% and Energy lagged at -1.28%, while airlines gained 4.44% and the Passenger Airlines sub-industry rose 5.17%. The mechanism is a near-term transfer from fuel producers and refiners toward fuel-consuming cyclicals; it is relief, not yet a structural reversal, because Energy remains up 30.56% year to date.
Rates and inflation +4.7%
The 10-year yield closed at 4.686% and TLT slipped 0.07%, so equities rallied without a material duration tailwind. Headline flow linked lower yields and crude to Iran de-escalation hopes, while a manufacturing survey flagged persistent inflation pressure; the resulting mix supports tactical risk but keeps valuation sensitivity live.
Sub-industry leadership +6.4%
Electronic Components (+6.42%), Internet Services & Infrastructure (+6.15%) and Passenger Airlines (+5.17%) led. The breadth beneath those groups was uneven—Electronic Components had only 33.3% above the 50-day average despite 100% above the 200-day—so the one-day surge should be confirmed rather than extrapolated.
Breakout inventory +15.0%
The scanner surfaced 15 setups, led by EA (74.2), NEOG (72.3), ARWR (68.9), DD (68.0) and HUM (67.9). Treat the list as an idea queue rather than a complete cross-section because Yahoo returned substantial symbol, DNS, thread and cache errors during the 1,411-name batch scan.
Catalysts and falsification +0.0%
Tactical risk-on remains the base case while small-cap relative strength, breadth above 60% and VIX below 18 persist. The view is falsified by renewed oil stress, IWM giving back its relative gain, breadth falling below 50%, or credit weakening decisively against Treasuries; a sustained software-over-semis spread would further favor application exposure over a uniform AI-capex basket.
Sector Breadth
Communication Svcs
+2.86%
Industrials
+1.85%
Cons. Discretionary
+1.83%
Technology
+1.53%
Materials
+1.15%
Financials
+0.77%
Real Estate
+0.24%
Utilities
+0.02%
Health Care
-0.19%
Cons. Staples
-0.22%
Energy
-1.28%
Top Movers
BA
BA
+8.03%
ISRG
ISRG
+6.25%
CRWD
CRWD
+6.12%
META
META
+6.02%
MSFT
MSFT
+4.93%
MCK
MCK
-3.39%
MPC
MPC
-2.98%
PSX
PSX
-2.59%
TXN
TXN
-2.43%
LLY
LLY
-2.39%
Scan Output
Full Breakout Table
Composite score combines relative strength, base quality, trend structure, and stage confirmation.
# Ticker Name Sector Score RS Base Trend Stage 2 Price 52W High vs High Avg Vol Vol/Avg
1 EA ★ 3d EA Unknown
74.2
53.1 79.8 100.0 ✓ $209.91 $209.91 +0.0% 2.4M 1.75x
2 NEOG NEOG Unknown
72.3
90.9 31.2 100.0 ✓ $11.90 $12.04 -1.2% 2.3M 1.62x
3 ARWR ★ 5d ARWR Unknown
68.9
100.0 11.1 100.0 ✓ $86.01 $88.70 -3.0% 2.3M 0.68x
4 DD DD Unknown
68.0
60.5 71.4 75.0 ✓ $141.28 $153.36 -7.9% 1.4M 1.87x
5 HUM HUM Unknown
67.9
82.5 28.2 100.0 ✓ $374.50 $409.42 -8.5% 1.4M 1.56x
6 BAX BAX Unknown
67.8
78.8 32.3 100.0 ✓ $28.10 $28.10 +0.0% 6.9M 1.65x
7 SWK SWK Unknown
66.8
67.8 42.1 100.0 ✓ $98.11 $98.11 +0.0% 1.7M 1.84x
8 IEX ★ 3d IEX Unknown
65.9
57.9 50.8 100.0 ✓ $232.70 $233.77 -0.5% 742K 1.51x
9 CNC CNC Unknown
65.5
81.1 23.0 100.0 ✓ $63.76 $68.72 -7.2% 5.2M 1.46x
10 AVTR AVTR Unknown
65.5
78.1 44.1 75.0 ✓ $13.67 $15.60 -12.4% 10.7M 1.88x
11 GRMN ★ 3d GRMN Unknown
65.2
63.4 42.4 100.0 ✓ $304.76 $304.76 +0.0% 934K 1.72x
12 DDOG ★ 13d DDOG Unknown
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $273.60 $277.49 -1.4% 5.0M 1.01x
13 DELL ★ 3d DELL Unknown
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $429.02 $465.19 -7.8% 9.4M 0.66x
14 HPE ★ 3d HPE Unknown
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $50.24 $55.99 -10.3% 28.5M 0.60x
15 PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $347.13 $358.68 -3.2% 7.8M 0.80x