2026-07-31
Daily Report
2026-07-31
Amazon converted the session into a mega-cap earnings rally, lifting SPY 0.72% and QQQ 0.65%, but IWM fell 0.48% and Apple dropped 7.35%. The close was risk-on at the index level yet narrow underneath: discretionary and communication services led, software beat semiconductors, and high rates continued to penalize smaller and more balance-sheet-sensitive equities.
SPY +0.72% QQQ +0.65% 15 qualifying setups
Market Signal
RISK ON
Score 0.85
Generated
2026-08-01 07:43
Static build timestamp
Leaders
Cons. Discretionary
Best-performing sector today
Lagging
Materials
Weakest sector on the tape
Overview
Index & Macro Snapshot
Core benchmarks, volatility, and curve shape for the session.
S&P 500
$747.03
+0.72% today · +9.93% YTD
Nasdaq 100
$687.99
+0.65% today · +12.48% YTD
Russell 2000
$291.20
-0.48% today · +17.54% YTD
Dow Jones
$524.32
+0.54% today · +9.26% YTD
VIX
15.99
-13.94% over 5d
10Y Treasury
4.75%
Long-end benchmark
2Y Treasury
3.68%
Policy-sensitive front end
2s/10s Curve
+106bps
Normal / steepening
Tape Read
What's Moving Markets Today
Daily strategist letter and the cross-sector spreads behind today's tape.
Strategist Letter · 2026-07-31
Morning Note
Closing checkpoint: SPY 747.03 (+0.72%), QQQ 687.99 (+0.65%) and IWM 291.20 (-0.48%). The day was led by Amazon-driven Discretionary, Communication Services and Energy, while Materials, Utilities and Health Care lagged. Medium-term breadth remained positive, but the 1.20-point IWM/SPY deficit and 4.745% 10-year yield keep the rally's breadth and duration sensitivity under scrutiny. The clean confirmation path is stable credit, lower or stable long yields, and a broader advance beyond AMZN and other mega-cap winners. Falsification is a renewed stock-bond selloff with widening credit, VIX re-expansion and 200-day breadth falling below 50%.
Discretionary vs Staples
risk-on
XLY +3.29% versus XLP -0.49%, a +3.78-point spread.
The consumer tape was risk-on, but Amazon's 15.32% move created substantial concentration risk.
Small caps vs large caps
risk-off
IWM -0.48% versus SPY +0.72%, a -1.20-point spread.
Mega-cap earnings did the lifting; financing-sensitive breadth did not confirm the index rally.
Software vs semiconductors
selective-risk-on
IGV +1.36% versus SMH +0.30%, a +1.06-point software advantage.
Visible monetization retained leadership over generic AI-capex beta.
Stocks vs long Treasuries
neutral
SPY +0.72% while TLT fell 0.66% and the 10-year yield reached 4.745%.
Earnings proof overcame duration pressure for a narrow group; the valuation hurdle remains high elsewhere.
Credit and volatility
risk-on
VIX was 15.99 and HYG outperformed IEF by 0.41 points over five days.
Funding stress is not confirming an equity drawdown, supporting the constructive medium-term regime.
Cross-Sector Synthesis
The close was risk-on but not broad. Cyclicals beat defensives by 1.51 points and Discretionary beat Staples by 3.78 points, yet IWM lagged SPY by 1.20 points and XLK finished negative despite QQQ's gain. Inside AI, IGV beat SMH by 1.06 points; within mega-cap earnings, AMZN beat AAPL by 22.67 points. The investable message is selectivity: the market paid for demonstrated cloud and software profit conversion, not undifferentiated duration or capex exposure. Cross-asset evidence was supportive but carried a rate warning. VIX fell to 15.99 and credit outperformed intermediate Treasuries over five days, while gold declined and equities rose. At the same time, TLT fell 0.66% and the 10-year yield reached 4.745%. Maintain diversified equity exposure while favoring businesses with visible estimate support; reduce confidence if credit weakens, IWM continues to lag, or the 10-year pushes higher without broader earnings follow-through.
Industry Rotation
Leadership combined energy cash-flow exposure with software monetization: Oil & Gas Drilling, Oil & Gas Equipment & Services and Systems Software were among the strongest groups. There were no confirmed rotation breakouts, so these are leadership observations rather than fresh regime-change signals.
Explore the full industry view →
Moving-Average Events
The repaired 113-industry universe recorded five industry golden crosses and one death cross. Stock breadth was 62.2% above the 50-day and 69.0% above the 200-day across 1,143 constituents with at least 220 sessions. The scanner's current top five were FTRE, AMCX, CAKE, EA and ARWR; follow-through and relative-strength persistence are required before promotion from setup to conviction idea.
News Flow
Catalysts driving the tape
125 relevant headlines across 5 sources, theme-tagged.
Headlines grouped by what's actually moving the market: geopolitics, Fed/macro, AI/tech, earnings, energy, regulation. Each headline is tagged to the sectors it most likely impacts. Urgency markers (!) indicate market-moving signals.
Earnings Tape
Reporting today
3 watchlist names from the EPS calendar.
Ticker Name Sector Reports Surprise
ABBV AbbVie Inc. Healthcare 2026-07-31 —
XOM ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation Energy 2026-07-31 —
CVX Chevron Corporation Energy 2026-07-31 —
Narrative
Sector Commentary
Active Codex task commentary grounded in the market inputs for this session.
Amazon converted the session into a mega-cap earnings rally, lifting SPY 0.72% and QQQ 0.65%, but IWM fell 0.48% and Apple dropped 7.35%. The close was risk-on at the index level yet narrow underneath: discretionary and communication services led, software beat semiconductors, and high rates continued to penalize smaller and more balance-sheet-sensitive equities.
Consumer Discretionary — Amazon concentration +3.3%
XLY led at +3.29% as AMZN rose 15.32% after public reporting highlighted management's case that heavy AI investment is translating into cloud demand and earnings power. Broadline Retail gained 1.14% with 83.3% of constituents above both the 50- and 200-day averages, but the sector move was much larger than the sub-industry advance, showing how heavily the headline result depended on Amazon's index weight.
Technology — monetization over hardware beta -0.2%
XLK slipped 0.22% even as MSFT gained 3.02%, CRWD 3.05% and ANET 5.46%. IGV outperformed SMH by 1.06 points, extending the week's central distinction: investors rewarded visible software and cloud monetization while semiconductor exposure needed company-specific proof after the prior de-crowding shock.
Apple versus Amazon -7.3%
AAPL fell 7.35% while AMZN gained 15.32%, a 22.67-point dispersion between two mega-cap earnings reactions. The market was not buying large-cap technology indiscriminately; it was repricing the quality and immediacy of the forward earnings bridge. Estimate revisions and post-call guidance details are the next confirmation test.
Energy — earnings plus inflation hedge +1.0%
XLE rose 1.00%, USO gained 1.33%, and Oil & Gas Drilling and Equipment & Services led sub-industries at +3.86% and +2.63%. Public reporting tied stronger Exxon and Chevron profit to higher oil prices associated with the Iran conflict. The positive cash-flow read-through remains offset by a 4.745% 10-year yield, so persistent crude strength would help producers but raise the discount-rate hurdle for the rest of the market.
Breadth — constructive trend, narrow close +0.0%
The repaired scanner produced 1,205 usable histories with at least 200 sessions out of 1,411 discovered symbols, while the industry engine had 1,143 constituents with at least 220 sessions. Breadth remained constructive at 62.2% above the 50-day and 69.0% above the 200-day, but IWM lagged SPY by 1.20 points today. That combination supports a positive medium-term regime while warning that the closing rally relied on mega-cap winners.
Industry leadership — energy and systems software +3.9%
Oil & Gas Drilling +3.86%, Interactive Media & Services +3.30%, Oil & Gas Equipment & Services +2.63%, Electronic Components +2.32% and Systems Software +2.28% led the 113-industry table. Systems Software breadth was notably strong at 83.3% above the 50-day and 75.0% above the 200-day, whereas Electronic Components had only 28.6% above the 50-day despite a positive session, making software leadership the cleaner trend signal.
Industry laggards — health care and materials -5.0%
Health Care Services fell 4.95%, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals 4.78%, Internet Services & Infrastructure 3.24%, Biotechnology 2.93% and Transaction & Payment Processing Services 2.92%. XBI's 2.94% loss and Materials' 2.34% decline show that the headline index gain did not represent broad participation. A reversal requires these groups to reclaim their 50-day trends with improving constituent breadth.
Factors and rates +1.1%
Growth gained 1.10% while Value lost 1.13%, and Momentum added 0.27%; however, the 10-year yield rose to 4.745% and TLT fell 0.66%. The apparent contradiction is resolved by earnings concentration: proven mega-cap growth could overcome the high discount rate, while small caps and broad value could not. A renewed rise in yields without earnings revisions would threaten this narrow growth leadership.
Cross-asset confirmation +0.8%
The quantitative regime score was +0.85 RISK ON, supported by VIX at 15.99, a +106-basis-point 2s10s curve, positive HYG-versus-IEF trend and SPY above both major moving averages. Gold fell 1.49% and credit stayed firm, consistent with lower near-term stress; bitcoin's proxy fell 2.85% and COIN dropped 10.59%, showing that speculative risk did not confirm the equity index signal.
Breakout scanner — validated top tier +0.0%
The isolated-cache rerun returned 15 Stage 2 / SEPA setups from the usable sample. The top five were FTRE (75.6), AMCX (74.1), CAKE (73.4), EA (73.2) and ARWR (68.9). Confirmation requires continued relative strength, volume support and survival above trend; the ranking is not a claim of full coverage for the 206 stale or unavailable source symbols.
Sector Breadth
Cons. Discretionary
+3.29%
Communication Svcs
+1.56%
Energy
+1.00%
Industrials
+0.81%
Financials
-0.11%
Technology
-0.22%
Cons. Staples
-0.49%
Real Estate
-0.51%
Health Care
-0.59%
Utilities
-0.69%
Materials
-2.34%
Top Movers
AMZN
AMZN
+15.32%
GOOGL
GOOGL
+6.73%
ANET
ANET
+5.46%
REGN
REGN
+3.29%
META
META
+3.28%
COIN
COIN
-10.59%
AAPL
AAPL
-7.35%
SYK
SYK
-6.42%
CI
CI
-2.99%
QCOM
QCOM
-2.63%
Scan Output
Full Breakout Table
Composite score combines relative strength, base quality, trend structure, and stage confirmation.
# Ticker Name Sector Score RS Base Trend Stage 2 Price 52W High vs High Avg Vol Vol/Avg
1 FTRE Fortrea Holdings Inc. Healthcare
75.6
100.0 30.2 100.0 ✓ $19.17 $20.70 -7.4% 1.4M 1.60x
2 AMCX AMC Global Media Inc. Communication Services
74.1
76.3 53.1 100.0 ✓ $11.20 $11.20 +0.0% 594K 2.00x
3 CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Consumer Cyclical
73.4
88.5 37.2 100.0 ✓ $101.42 $101.42 +0.0% 1.5M 1.74x
4 EA EA Communication Services
73.2
56.1 73.6 100.0 ✓ $209.86 $209.86 +0.0% 2.3M 1.63x
5 ARWR ★ 4d Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Healthcare
68.9
100.0 11.1 100.0 ✓ $84.65 $88.70 -4.6% 2.3M 0.78x
6 RNG RingCentral, Inc. Technology
68.9
84.3 28.9 100.0 ✓ $55.62 $57.58 -3.4% 1.9M 1.58x
7 EGP EGP Real Estate
68.7
54.0 63.0 100.0 ✓ $209.01 $223.38 -6.4% 424K 1.71x
8 LAD LAD Consumer Cyclical
68.6
65.3 50.0 100.0 ✓ $385.42 $427.48 -9.8% 327K 2.22x
9 NEOG Neogen Corporation Healthcare
68.4
90.5 20.4 100.0 ✓ $12.04 $12.04 +0.0% 2.3M 1.41x
10 GRMN Garmin Ltd. Technology
67.7
61.6 51.7 100.0 ✓ $293.78 $297.55 -1.3% 934K 1.85x
11 JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation Industrials
67.2
62.3 49.4 100.0 ✓ $6.03 $6.46 -6.7% 32.2M 1.92x
12 IEX IDEX Corporation Industrials
66.1
57.8 51.5 100.0 ✓ $230.45 $233.77 -1.4% 739K 1.54x
13 DDOG ★ 12d Datadog, Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $267.97 $277.49 -3.4% 5.0M 0.90x
14 DELL Dell Technologies Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $405.37 $465.19 -12.9% 9.4M 0.66x
15 HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $47.90 $55.99 -14.4% 28.4M 0.57x