2026-07-29
Daily Report
2026-07-29
Energy led the session at +1.88%, while Industrials lagged at -3.19%, with USO +7.32% setting the thematic tone.
SPY -1.54% QQQ -2.04% 15 qualifying setups
Market Signal
RISK ON
Score 0.40
Generated
2026-07-29 16:32
Static build timestamp
Leaders
Energy
Best-performing sector today
Lagging
Industrials
Weakest sector on the tape
Overview
Index & Macro Snapshot
Core benchmarks, volatility, and curve shape for the session.
S&P 500
$729.46
-1.54% today · +7.34% YTD
Nasdaq 100
$661.73
-2.04% today · +8.18% YTD
Russell 2000
$288.57
-1.64% today · +16.48% YTD
Dow Jones
$515.41
-2.18% today · +7.40% YTD
VIX
20.66
+24.16% over 5d
10Y Treasury
4.62%
Long-end benchmark
2Y Treasury
3.66%
Policy-sensitive front end
2s/10s Curve
+96bps
Normal / steepening
Tape Read
What's Moving Markets Today
Daily strategist letter and the cross-sector spreads behind today's tape.
Strategist Letter · 2026-07-29
Morning Note
The tape is trading risk on (composite score +0.40), with SPY -1.54%, QQQ -2.04% and IWM -1.64% on the session. Universe breadth sits at 64% above 50-day and 68% above 200-day, and VIX prints 20.66 (+24.2% over five sessions). At the GICS sub-industry level, leadership concentrated in IT Consulting & Other Services (+5.43%), Telecom Tower REITs (+5.13%), Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (+3.96%), Human Resource & Employment Services (+3.50%). On the laggard side, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment -7.20% headed the weak list. No industries crossed into the Leading RRG quadrant in the last five sessions. Cross-asset color: the dollar (UUP) -0.56%; long bonds (TLT) -1.65%; high yield (HYG) -0.23% — credit stress widening; crude (USO) +7.32%; gold (GLD) +0.46%; bitcoin (BITO) -0.35%. The 2s10s curve sits at +96bps. Risks worth tracking: and 200-day breaks in Electronic Manufacturing Services, Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods, Aerospace & Defense; the breadth tape shows 19 new stock-level golden crosses against 5 death crosses. Catalysts in the wires: on geopolitics: 'Jeffrey Gundlach says the bond market is telling Warsh the Fed has to start acting on inflation' [CNBC]; on Fed / macro: 'FOMC votes to keep funds rate unchanged' [CNBC]; on AI / tech: 'Caterpillar is downgraded on growing data center buildout backlash' [CNBC]; on energy: 'From panic to pricing in: Are markets past 'peak fear and sell-off' despite oil price surge?' [CNBC]. Positioning takeaway: lean into Energy pockets where breadth is improving and trim exposure in Industrials until 200-day support is reclaimed.
Cyclicals vs Defensives
risk-off
Cyclicals (-2.05%) are lagging Defensives (-0.43%) by 1.62pp.
Defensive rotation underway — money is rotating into Staples / Utilities / REITs / Health Care.
Discretionary vs Staples
risk-off
XLY -0.77% vs XLP +0.34% (spread -1.11pp).
Consumer rotating defensive — Staples bid is a late-cycle warning.
Semis vs Software (AI capex theme)
risk-off
SMH -4.79% vs IGV +0.64% — spread -5.43pp.
Software is leading semis — AI monetisation narrative dominating, or semis exhaustion.
Energy vs Utilities
neutral
XLE +1.88% vs XLU -1.34% — spread +3.22pp.
Inflation reflation/commodity bid; favours real-asset exposure and pricing-power names.
Stocks vs Bonds (SPY vs TLT)
risk-off
SPY -1.54% AND TLT -1.65% — both red.
Cross-asset stress — equities and duration selling in tandem; classic liquidity drain.
Dollar vs Equities
neutral
UUP -0.56% / SPY -1.54%.
Dollar weak with equities down = unusual; could be growth scare in US specifically.
Gold vs Equities
risk-off
GLD +0.46% / SPY -1.54%.
Defensive rotation into gold while equities sell — flight-to-quality, watch credit too.
Credit vs Treasuries (HYG vs IEF, 5d)
risk-off
HYG 5d -0.35% vs IEF 5d +0.08% — spread -0.43pp.
Credit widening relative to Treasuries — risk premia expanding, defensive signal.
Growth vs Value (factors)
neutral
VUG -1.51% vs VLUE -2.81% — spread +1.30pp.
Growth factor leading — duration / long-multiple stocks bid; lower-rates regime.
Momentum vs Min Vol
risk-off
MTUM -3.15% vs USMV -0.21% — spread -2.94pp.
Defensive crowding — Min-Vol bid signals investors paying for stability over upside.
Cross-Sector Synthesis
The cross-sector tape is unambiguously risk-off. Cyclicals vs Defensives: Cyclicals (-2.05%) are lagging Defensives (-0.43%) by 1.62pp. Defensive rotation underway — money is rotating into Staples / Utilities / REITs / Health Care. Discretionary vs Staples: XLY -0.77% vs XLP +0.34% (spread -1.11pp). Consumer rotating defensive — Staples bid is a late-cycle warning. Semis vs Software (AI capex theme): SMH -4.79% vs IGV +0.64% — spread -5.43pp. Software is leading semis — AI monetisation narrative dominating, or semis exhaustion.
Moving-Average Events
Industry golden crosses: Life Sciences Tools & Services, Health Care Distributors; Industry 200d reclaims: Interactive Media & Services, Research & Consulting Services, Health Care Facilities, Advertising, Health Care Technology; Industry 200d losses: Electronic Manufacturing Services, Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods, Aerospace & Defense, Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders, Consumer Finance; Industry EMA(12/26) bull crosses: Application Software, Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages, Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods, Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines, Aerospace & Defense; Industry EMA(12/26) bear crosses: Food Retail, Passenger Airlines, Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment, Trading Companies & Distributors, Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation. Stock-level: 19 new golden crosses, 5 new death crosses across the S&P 1500 in the last 5 sessions.
News Flow
Catalysts driving the tape
126 relevant headlines across 5 sources, theme-tagged.
Headlines grouped by what's actually moving the market: geopolitics, Fed/macro, AI/tech, earnings, energy, regulation. Each headline is tagged to the sectors it most likely impacts. Urgency markers (!) indicate market-moving signals.
Geopolitics
12
CNBC ! MED Technology Cons. Discretionary
Fed / Macro
12
AI / Tech
12
Earnings
12
CNBC ! MED Technology Cons. Discretionary
Energy / Oil
3
China / Trade
3
Healthcare
2
Crypto
8
Mergers & Acquisitions
2
Regulation
2
Layoffs / Labor
1
Earnings Tape
Reporting today
3 watchlist names from the EPS calendar.
Ticker Name Sector Reports Surprise
MSFT Microsoft Corporation Technology 2026-07-29 —
META Meta Platforms, Inc. Communication Services 2026-07-29 —
PG Procter & Gamble Company (The) Consumer Defensive 2026-07-29 —
Narrative
Sector Commentary
OpenAI commentary grounded in the market inputs for this session.
Energy led the session at +1.88%, while Industrials lagged at -3.19%, with USO +7.32% setting the thematic tone.
Energy +1.9%
Energy led the sector leaderboard at +1.88% as the strongest large-cap gainers were DDOG +5.31%, WDAY +5.21%, ACN +5.17%.
Industrials -3.2%
Industrials was the weakest major group at -3.19% with pressure concentrated in SMCI -9.67%, ARM -8.11%, ANET -6.92%.
Commodities — Crude Oil +7.3%
USO moved +7.32% on the day and -1.80% over 5 days, giving the market a clear read on thematic leadership.
Factor & Regime -3.1%
Momentum led the factor complex at -3.15% while Low Vol trailed at -0.55%. Market signal registered RISK ON at +0.40.
Industry Leaders — IT Consulting & Other Services +5.4%
At the GICS sub-industry level, leadership came from IT Consulting & Other Services +5.43%, Telecom Tower REITs +5.13%, Oil & Gas Exploration & Production +3.96%. Universe breadth: 64% of S&P 1500 names above their 50-day MA, 68% above the 200-day.
Industry Laggards — Semiconductor Materials & Equipment -7.2%
Weakest sub-industries today: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment -7.20%, Electronic Manufacturing Services -6.23%, Construction & Engineering -5.95%.
Moving-Average Cross Events +0.0%
Industry golden crosses: Life Sciences Tools & Services, Health Care Distributors; Industry 200d reclaims: Interactive Media & Services, Research & Consulting Services, Health Care Facilities, Advertising, Health Care Technology; Industry 200d losses: Electronic Manufacturing Services, Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods, Aerospace & Defense, Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders, Consumer Finance; Industry EMA(12/26) bull crosses: Application Software, Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages, Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods, Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines, Aerospace & Defense; Industry EMA(12/26) bear crosses: Food Retail, Passenger Airlines, Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment, Trading Companies & Distributors, Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation.
Geopolitics +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged Geopolitics. Top items: [CNBC] Jeffrey Gundlach says the bond market is telling Warsh the Fed has to start acting on inflation; [CNBC] Jim Cramer issues a warning to investors trading with borrowed money
Fed / Macro +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged Fed/Macro. Top items: [CNBC] FOMC votes to keep funds rate unchanged; [CNBC] Dow drops 1,100 points for worst day since April 2025 on fear the Fed is falling behind on inflation: Live updates
AI / Tech +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged AI/Tech. Top items: [CNBC] Caterpillar is downgraded on growing data center buildout backlash; [CNBC] Qualcomm to raise prices during memory crunch as chipmaker issues light earnings guidance
Earnings Tape +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged Earnings. Top items: [CNBC] Meta's stock drops on light revenue guidance, dwindling free cash flow; [CNBC] Qualcomm to raise prices during memory crunch as chipmaker issues light earnings guidance
Sector Breadth
Energy
+1.88%
Cons. Staples
+0.34%
Real Estate
-0.11%
Communication Svcs
-0.15%
Health Care
-0.61%
Cons. Discretionary
-0.77%
Materials
-1.15%
Utilities
-1.34%
Financials
-1.60%
Technology
-2.64%
Industrials
-3.19%
Top Movers
DDOG
DDOG
+5.31%
WDAY
WDAY
+5.21%
ACN
ACN
+5.17%
NOW
NOW
+4.65%
SNOW
SNOW
+4.64%
SMCI
SMCI
-9.67%
ARM
ARM
-8.11%
ANET
ANET
-6.92%
CAT
CAT
-6.91%
LRCX
LRCX
-6.40%
Scan Output
Full Breakout Table
Composite score combines relative strength, base quality, trend structure, and stage confirmation.
# Ticker Name Sector Score RS Base Trend Stage 2 Price 52W High vs High Avg Vol Vol/Avg
1 KRYS KRYS Unknown
79.2
91.7 50.0 100.0 ✓ $363.28 $378.15 -3.9% 431K 3.02x
2 DGX DGX Unknown
70.6
65.0 56.0 100.0 ✓ $235.22 $235.94 -0.3% 966K 1.83x
3 ARWR ARWR Unknown
66.1
100.0 3.2 100.0 ✓ $86.22 $88.70 -2.8% 2.3M 0.88x
4 PFG PFG Unknown
65.1
62.4 43.1 100.0 ✓ $113.18 $114.09 -0.8% 1.4M 1.48x
5 DDOG ★ 10d DDOG Unknown
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $264.20 $277.49 -4.8% 5.1M 0.74x
6 BTSG BTSG Unknown
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $69.37 $72.91 -4.9% 3.9M 0.60x
7 PCG PCG Unknown
64.9
55.9 50.1 100.0 ✓ $17.71 $19.00 -6.8% 18.5M 1.43x
8 VSTS VSTS Unknown
64.7
99.2 0.0 100.0 ✓ $14.92 $16.50 -9.6% 1.4M 0.66x
9 ROIV ROIV Unknown
64.6
92.5 7.4 100.0 ✓ $32.87 $36.81 -10.7% 6.0M 0.72x
10 MEDP MEDP Unknown
64.6
72.4 48.3 75.0 ✓ $584.93 $620.59 -5.7% 345K 1.97x
11 SHC SHC Unknown
64.5
63.5 40.2 100.0 ✓ $17.53 $19.35 -9.4% 2.9M 1.42x
12 PKG PKG Unknown
64.2
57.5 46.2 100.0 ✓ $249.43 $254.39 -1.9% 709K 1.61x
13 RTX RTX Unknown
64.2
65.1 37.7 100.0 ✓ $215.25 $218.58 -1.5% 5.4M 1.49x
14 PBF ★ 3d PBF Unknown
63.9
97.3 0.0 100.0 ✓ $63.35 $66.05 -4.1% 2.8M 1.11x
15 OVV OVV Unknown
63.6
60.1 41.7 100.0 ✓ $61.28 $63.13 -2.9% 3.3M 1.42x