2026-07-13
Daily Report
2026-07-13
Energy led the session at +3.01%, while Technology lagged at -2.42%, with USO +8.36% setting the thematic tone.
SPY -0.77% QQQ -1.90% 15 qualifying setups
Market Signal
RISK ON
Score 0.85
Generated
2026-07-13 19:02
Static build timestamp
Leaders
Energy
Best-performing sector today
Lagging
Technology
Weakest sector on the tape
Overview
Index & Macro Snapshot
Core benchmarks, volatility, and curve shape for the session.
S&P 500
$749.17
-0.77% today · +10.24% YTD
Nasdaq 100
$711.74
-1.90% today · +16.36% YTD
Russell 2000
$293.48
-0.85% today · +18.46% YTD
Dow Jones
$524.47
-0.25% today · +9.26% YTD
VIX
17.16
+10.21% over 5d
10Y Treasury
4.61%
Long-end benchmark
2Y Treasury
3.73%
Policy-sensitive front end
2s/10s Curve
+88bps
Normal / steepening
Tape Read
What's Moving Markets Today
Daily strategist letter and the cross-sector spreads behind today's tape.
Strategist Letter · 2026-07-13
Morning Note
The tape is trading risk on (composite score +0.85), with SPY -0.77%, QQQ -1.90% and IWM -0.85% on the session. Universe breadth sits at 65% above 50-day and 68% above 200-day, and VIX prints 17.16 (+10.2% over five sessions). At the GICS sub-industry level, leadership concentrated in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (+6.03%), Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (+3.10%), Health Care Technology (+2.84%), Financial Exchanges & Data (+2.43%). On the laggard side, Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals -9.14% headed the weak list. No industries crossed into the Leading RRG quadrant in the last five sessions. Cross-asset color: the dollar (UUP) +0.39%; long bonds (TLT) -0.59%; high yield (HYG) -0.24% — credit stress widening; crude (USO) +8.36%; gold (GLD) -2.62%; bitcoin (BITO) -2.65%. The 2s10s curve sits at +88bps. Risks worth tracking: watch the recent death-cross prints in Restaurants, Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods; and 200-day breaks in Specialty Chemicals, Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials, Consumer Finance; the breadth tape shows 10 new stock-level golden crosses against 6 death crosses. Catalysts in the wires: on geopolitics: 'Why a borrowing binge by investors is a warning sign for the stock market' [MarketWatch Top]; on Fed / macro: 'Shutterstock CEO Paul Hennessy steps down; Rik Powell to take over' [Seeking Alpha Markets]; on AI / tech: 'TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, reports 68% surge in June revenue' [CNBC]; on energy: 'From panic to pricing in: Are markets past 'peak fear and sell-off' despite oil price surge?' [CNBC]. Positioning takeaway: lean into Energy pockets where breadth is improving and trim exposure in Technology until 200-day support is reclaimed.
Cyclicals vs Defensives
risk-off
Cyclicals (-0.91%) are lagging Defensives (+0.54%) by 1.45pp.
Defensive rotation underway — money is rotating into Staples / Utilities / REITs / Health Care.
Discretionary vs Staples
risk-off
XLY -1.02% vs XLP +0.56% (spread -1.58pp).
Consumer rotating defensive — Staples bid is a late-cycle warning.
Semis vs Software (AI capex theme)
risk-off
SMH -4.16% vs IGV +0.31% — spread -4.47pp.
Software is leading semis — AI monetisation narrative dominating, or semis exhaustion.
Energy vs Utilities
neutral
XLE +3.01% vs XLU +0.68% — spread +2.33pp.
Inflation reflation/commodity bid; favours real-asset exposure and pricing-power names.
Stocks vs Bonds (SPY vs TLT)
risk-off
SPY -0.77% AND TLT -0.59% — both red.
Cross-asset stress — equities and duration selling in tandem; classic liquidity drain.
Dollar vs Equities
risk-off
UUP +0.39% / SPY -0.77%.
Dollar bid with equities down = classic flight-to-quality, USD safe-haven.
Gold vs Equities
risk-off
GLD -2.62% / SPY -0.77%.
Gold and equities both off — broad de-leveraging.
Credit vs Treasuries (HYG vs IEF, 5d)
risk-on
HYG 5d -0.44% vs IEF 5d -0.94% — spread +0.50pp.
Credit tightening / risk premia compressing — bullish for equities.
Growth vs Value (factors)
neutral
VUG -1.43% vs VLUE -0.81% — spread -0.62pp.
Value factor leading — short-duration / cash-flow names bid; cyclical / re-flation tape.
Momentum vs Min Vol
risk-off
MTUM -2.22% vs USMV +0.06% — spread -2.28pp.
Defensive crowding — Min-Vol bid signals investors paying for stability over upside.
Cross-Sector Synthesis
The cross-sector tape is unambiguously risk-off. Cyclicals vs Defensives: Cyclicals (-0.91%) are lagging Defensives (+0.54%) by 1.45pp. Defensive rotation underway — money is rotating into Staples / Utilities / REITs / Health Care. Discretionary vs Staples: XLY -1.02% vs XLP +0.56% (spread -1.58pp). Consumer rotating defensive — Staples bid is a late-cycle warning. Semis vs Software (AI capex theme): SMH -4.16% vs IGV +0.31% — spread -4.47pp. Software is leading semis — AI monetisation narrative dominating, or semis exhaustion.
Moving-Average Events
Industry golden crosses: Household Products; Industry death crosses: Restaurants, Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods; Industry 200d reclaims: Restaurants, Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders, Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials, Consumer Finance, Insurance Brokers; Industry 200d losses: Specialty Chemicals, Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials, Consumer Finance, Insurance Brokers, Transaction & Payment Processing Services; Industry EMA(12/26) bull crosses: Food Retail, Application Software, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Industrial REITs, Environmental & Facilities Services; Industry EMA(12/26) bear crosses: Electronic Components, Semiconductors, Electrical Components & Equipment, Trading Companies & Distributors, Construction Materials. Stock-level: 10 new golden crosses, 6 new death crosses across the S&P 1500 in the last 5 sessions.
News Flow
Catalysts driving the tape
117 relevant headlines across 5 sources, theme-tagged.
Headlines grouped by what's actually moving the market: geopolitics, Fed/macro, AI/tech, earnings, energy, regulation. Each headline is tagged to the sectors it most likely impacts. Urgency markers (!) indicate market-moving signals.
Geopolitics
12
Fed / Macro
6
AI / Tech
12
Earnings
12
Energy / Oil
5
China / Trade
6
Healthcare
2
Crypto
12
Regulation
2
Layoffs / Labor
4
Narrative
Sector Commentary
GPT-5.4 commentary grounded in the market inputs for this session.
Energy led the session at +3.01%, while Technology lagged at -2.42%, with USO +8.36% setting the thematic tone.
Energy +3.0%
Energy led the sector leaderboard at +3.01% as the strongest large-cap gainers were VLO +5.38%, PSX +5.27%, CRM +4.84%.
Technology -2.4%
Technology was the weakest major group at -2.42% with pressure concentrated in MRVL -7.75%, ARM -7.55%, INTC -6.12%.
Commodities — Crude Oil +8.4%
USO moved +8.36% on the day and +12.88% over 5 days, giving the market a clear read on thematic leadership.
Factor & Regime -2.2%
Momentum led the factor complex at -2.22% while Low Vol trailed at +0.75%. Market signal registered RISK ON at +0.85.
Industry Leaders — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing +6.0%
At the GICS sub-industry level, leadership came from Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing +6.03%, Oil & Gas Exploration & Production +3.10%, Health Care Technology +2.84%. Universe breadth: 65% of S&P 1500 names above their 50-day MA, 68% above the 200-day.
Industry Laggards — Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals -9.1%
Weakest sub-industries today: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals -9.14%, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment -4.95%, Semiconductors -4.72%.
Moving-Average Cross Events +0.0%
Industry golden crosses: Household Products; Industry death crosses: Restaurants, Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods; Industry 200d reclaims: Restaurants, Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders, Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials, Consumer Finance, Insurance Brokers; Industry 200d losses: Specialty Chemicals, Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials, Consumer Finance, Insurance Brokers, Transaction & Payment Processing Services; Industry EMA(12/26) bull crosses: Food Retail, Application Software, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Industrial REITs, Environmental & Facilities Services; Industry EMA(12/26) bear crosses: Electronic Components, Semiconductors, Electrical Components & Equipment, Trading Companies & Distributors, Construction Materials.
Geopolitics +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged Geopolitics. Top items: [MarketWatch Top] Why a borrowing binge by investors is a warning sign for the stock market; [CNBC] Trump proposes 20% toll on cargo through Strait of Hormuz; restarts Iran blockade
Fed / Macro +0.0%
6 active headlines tagged Fed/Macro. Top items: [Seeking Alpha Markets] Shutterstock CEO Paul Hennessy steps down; Rik Powell to take over; [CNBC] There's no way this bond market can fund the markets' needs without higher yields: Mohamed El-Erian
AI / Tech +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged AI/Tech. Top items: [CNBC] TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, reports 68% surge in June revenue; [CNBC] Micron stock jumps 15% as soaring prices from AI boom lead to quadrupling of revenue
Earnings Tape +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged Earnings. Top items: [CNBC] Darden Restaurants earnings beat estimates but Olive Garden growth weakens; [CNBC] TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, reports 68% surge in June revenue
Sector Breadth
Energy
+3.01%
Utilities
+0.68%
Financials
+0.65%
Real Estate
+0.56%
Cons. Staples
+0.56%
Health Care
+0.35%
Communication Svcs
-0.04%
Materials
-0.61%
Industrials
-0.85%
Cons. Discretionary
-1.02%
Technology
-2.42%
Top Movers
VLO
VLO
+5.38%
PSX
PSX
+5.27%
CRM
CRM
+4.84%
MPC
MPC
+4.63%
WDAY
WDAY
+4.26%
MRVL
MRVL
-7.75%
ARM
ARM
-7.55%
INTC
INTC
-6.12%
LRCX
LRCX
-5.83%
TXN
TXN
-4.14%
Scan Output
Full Breakout Table
Composite score combines relative strength, base quality, trend structure, and stage confirmation.
# Ticker Name Sector Score RS Base Trend Stage 2 Price 52W High vs High Avg Vol Vol/Avg
1 PTGX Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. Healthcare
67.9
84.8 25.6 100.0 ✓ $129.89 $140.85 -7.8% 731K 1.51x
2 HELE Helen of Troy Limited Consumer Defensive
65.4
73.9 31.0 100.0 ✓ $27.74 $29.86 -7.1% 632K 1.62x
3 AMD ★ 6d Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $534.39 $580.91 -8.0% 34.4M 0.72x
4 CNC Centene Corporation Healthcare
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $68.29 $68.35 -0.1% 5.4M 0.66x
5 DDOG ★ 6d Datadog, Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $260.24 $277.49 -6.2% 6.2M 0.79x
6 DELL ★ 6d Dell Technologies Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $427.11 $465.96 -8.3% 9.3M 0.73x
7 FTNT Fortinet, Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $160.62 $163.73 -1.9% 6.5M 0.70x
8 HPE ★ 4d Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $47.24 $55.99 -15.6% 28.5M 0.68x
9 HUM ★ 6d Humana Inc. Healthcare
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $406.00 $409.42 -0.8% 1.5M 0.79x
10 MU ★ 6d Micron Technology, Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $937.00 $1213.37 -22.8% 54.2M 0.75x
11 PANW ★ 3d Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $330.30 $357.53 -7.6% 8.5M 0.87x
12 WDC ★ 4d Western Digital Corporation Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $555.55 $746.23 -25.6% 8.7M 0.72x
13 OKTA Okta, Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $139.53 $148.84 -6.3% 3.9M 0.76x
14 VSTS Vestis Corporation Industrials
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $14.74 $14.83 -0.6% 1.6M 0.71x
15 AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. Technology
63.9
97.2 0.0 100.0 ✓ $575.39 $723.00 -20.4% 10.1M 0.95x