2026-07-01
Daily Report
2026-07-01
Communication Svcs led the session at +2.44%, while Technology lagged at -2.57%, with SMH -5.40% setting the thematic tone.
SPY -0.14% QQQ -1.52% 15 qualifying setups
Market Signal
RISK ON
Score 0.80
Generated
2026-07-01 19:01
Static build timestamp
Leaders
Communication Svcs
Best-performing sector today
Lagging
Technology
Weakest sector on the tape
Overview
Index & Macro Snapshot
Core benchmarks, volatility, and curve shape for the session.
S&P 500
$745.76
-0.14% today · +9.74% YTD
Nasdaq 100
$725.17
-1.52% today · +18.55% YTD
Russell 2000
$299.32
-0.38% today · +20.82% YTD
Dow Jones
$522.40
+0.00% today · +8.83% YTD
VIX
16.59
-10.95% over 5d
10Y Treasury
4.47%
Long-end benchmark
2Y Treasury
3.70%
Policy-sensitive front end
2s/10s Curve
+78bps
Normal / steepening
Tape Read
What's Moving Markets Today
Daily strategist letter and the cross-sector spreads behind today's tape.
Strategist Letter · 2026-07-01
Morning Note
The tape is trading risk on (composite score +0.80), with SPY -0.14%, QQQ -1.52% and IWM -0.38% on the session. Universe breadth sits at 63% above 50-day and 63% above 200-day, and VIX prints 16.59 (-10.9% over five sessions). At the GICS sub-industry level, leadership concentrated in Managed Health Care (+4.62%), Insurance Brokers (+4.41%), Systems Software (+4.30%), Financial Exchanges & Data (+4.06%). On the laggard side, Electronic Components -8.90% headed the weak list. No industries crossed into the Leading RRG quadrant in the last five sessions. Cross-asset color: the dollar (UUP) +0.28%; long bonds (TLT) -1.04%; high yield (HYG) -0.48% — credit stress widening; crude (USO) -2.98%; gold (GLD) +0.60%; bitcoin (BITO) +1.88%. The 2s10s curve sits at +78bps. Risks worth tracking: and 200-day breaks in Specialty Chemicals, Construction Materials, Casinos & Gaming; the breadth tape shows 7 new stock-level golden crosses against 4 death crosses. Catalysts in the wires: on geopolitics: 'Costco issues a lukewarm quarter, but delivers on the metric that matters most' [CNBC]; on Fed / macro: 'Treasury yields rise as Fed Chairman Warsh says 'prices are too high'' [CNBC]; on AI / tech: 'Cleveland Fed President Hammack says AI could fuel inflation, rate hikes may be necessary' [CNBC]; on energy: 'From panic to pricing in: Are markets past 'peak fear and sell-off' despite oil price surge?' [CNBC]. Positioning takeaway: lean into Communication Svcs pockets where breadth is improving and trim exposure in Technology until 200-day support is reclaimed.
Cyclicals vs Defensives
mixed
Cyclicals (-0.18%) are lagging Defensives (-0.02%) by 0.15pp.
Mixed leadership — the tape can't pick a regime.
Discretionary vs Staples
risk-on
XLY +0.69% vs XLP +0.28% (spread +0.41pp).
Consumer is risk-on — the household balance-sheet trade is working.
Semis vs Software (AI capex theme)
risk-off
SMH -5.40% vs IGV +3.02% — spread -8.42pp.
Software is leading semis — AI monetisation narrative dominating, or semis exhaustion.
Energy vs Utilities
neutral
XLE -0.56% vs XLU -1.26% — spread +0.70pp.
Inflation reflation/commodity bid; favours real-asset exposure and pricing-power names.
Small caps vs Large caps (IWM vs SPY)
neutral
IWM -0.38% vs SPY -0.14% — spread -0.24pp.
Cap-weighted vs equal-weighted in line — no breadth distortion.
Stocks vs Bonds (SPY vs TLT)
risk-off
SPY -0.14% AND TLT -1.04% — both red.
Cross-asset stress — equities and duration selling in tandem; classic liquidity drain.
Dollar vs Equities
risk-off
UUP +0.28% / SPY -0.14%.
Dollar bid with equities down = classic flight-to-quality, USD safe-haven.
Gold vs Equities
risk-off
GLD +0.60% / SPY -0.14%.
Defensive rotation into gold while equities sell — flight-to-quality, watch credit too.
Credit vs Treasuries (HYG vs IEF, 5d)
risk-on
HYG 5d -0.33% vs IEF 5d -0.74% — spread +0.41pp.
Credit tightening / risk premia compressing — bullish for equities.
Growth vs Value (factors)
neutral
VUG +0.03% vs VLUE -2.17% — spread +2.20pp.
Growth factor leading — duration / long-multiple stocks bid; lower-rates regime.
Momentum vs Min Vol
risk-off
MTUM -4.30% vs USMV +0.45% — spread -4.75pp.
Defensive crowding — Min-Vol bid signals investors paying for stability over upside.
Cross-Sector Synthesis
The cross-sector tape is unambiguously risk-off. Cyclicals vs Defensives: Cyclicals (-0.18%) are lagging Defensives (-0.02%) by 0.15pp. Mixed leadership — the tape can't pick a regime. Discretionary vs Staples: XLY +0.69% vs XLP +0.28% (spread +0.41pp). Consumer is risk-on — the household balance-sheet trade is working. Semis vs Software (AI capex theme): SMH -5.40% vs IGV +3.02% — spread -8.42pp. Software is leading semis — AI monetisation narrative dominating, or semis exhaustion.
Moving-Average Events
Industry golden crosses: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages; Industry 200d reclaims: Movies & Entertainment, Casinos & Gaming, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Specialty Chemicals, Aerospace & Defense; Industry 200d losses: Specialty Chemicals, Construction Materials, Casinos & Gaming, Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders; Industry EMA(12/26) bull crosses: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing, Other Specialty Retail, Packaged Foods & Meats, Health Care Equipment, Rail Transportation; Industry EMA(12/26) bear crosses: Automotive Parts & Equipment, Food Retail, Steel, Internet Services & Infrastructure, Cargo Ground Transportation. Stock-level: 7 new golden crosses, 4 new death crosses across the S&P 1500 in the last 5 sessions.
News Flow
Catalysts driving the tape
102 relevant headlines across 5 sources, theme-tagged.
Headlines grouped by what's actually moving the market: geopolitics, Fed/macro, AI/tech, earnings, energy, regulation. Each headline is tagged to the sectors it most likely impacts. Urgency markers (!) indicate market-moving signals.
Geopolitics
12
Fed / Macro
8
AI / Tech
12
Earnings
12
Energy / Oil
2
China / Trade
3
Healthcare
2
Crypto
7
Layoffs / Labor
4
Narrative
Sector Commentary
GPT-5.4 commentary grounded in the market inputs for this session.
Communication Svcs led the session at +2.44%, while Technology lagged at -2.57%, with SMH -5.40% setting the thematic tone.
Communication Svcs +2.4%
Communication Svcs led the sector leaderboard at +2.44% as the strongest large-cap gainers were CRWD +10.22%, COIN +8.93%, META +8.81%.
Technology -2.6%
Technology was the weakest major group at -2.57% with pressure concentrated in LRCX -9.71%, INTC -9.03%, MRVL -8.67%.
AI / Tech — Semiconductors -5.4%
SMH moved -5.40% on the day and +0.25% over 5 days, giving the market a clear read on thematic leadership.
Factor & Regime -4.3%
Momentum led the factor complex at -4.30% while Low Vol trailed at +0.45%. Market signal registered RISK ON at +0.80.
Industry Leaders — Managed Health Care +4.6%
At the GICS sub-industry level, leadership came from Managed Health Care +4.62%, Insurance Brokers +4.41%, Systems Software +4.30%. Universe breadth: 63% of S&P 1500 names above their 50-day MA, 63% above the 200-day.
Industry Laggards — Electronic Components -8.9%
Weakest sub-industries today: Electronic Components -8.90%, Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals -8.53%, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment -8.02%.
Moving-Average Cross Events +0.0%
Industry golden crosses: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages; Industry 200d reclaims: Movies & Entertainment, Casinos & Gaming, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Specialty Chemicals, Aerospace & Defense; Industry 200d losses: Specialty Chemicals, Construction Materials, Casinos & Gaming, Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders; Industry EMA(12/26) bull crosses: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing, Other Specialty Retail, Packaged Foods & Meats, Health Care Equipment, Rail Transportation; Industry EMA(12/26) bear crosses: Automotive Parts & Equipment, Food Retail, Steel, Internet Services & Infrastructure, Cargo Ground Transportation.
Geopolitics +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged Geopolitics. Top items: [CNBC] Costco issues a lukewarm quarter, but delivers on the metric that matters most; [CNBC] Treasury yields rise as Fed Chairman Warsh says 'prices are too high'
Fed / Macro +0.0%
8 active headlines tagged Fed/Macro. Top items: [CNBC] Treasury yields rise as Fed Chairman Warsh says 'prices are too high'; [CNBC] Cleveland Fed President Hammack says AI could fuel inflation, rate hikes may be necessary
AI / Tech +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged AI/Tech. Top items: [CNBC] Cleveland Fed President Hammack says AI could fuel inflation, rate hikes may be necessary; [CNBC] Micron stock jumps 15% as soaring prices from AI boom lead to quadrupling of revenue
Earnings Tape +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged Earnings. Top items: [CNBC] Darden Restaurants earnings beat estimates but Olive Garden growth weakens; [CNBC] AeroVironment soars 28% on earnings beat, backlog grows to $1.2 billion
Sector Breadth
Communication Svcs
+2.44%
Financials
+2.18%
Cons. Discretionary
+0.69%
Health Care
+0.55%
Materials
+0.37%
Real Estate
+0.34%
Cons. Staples
+0.28%
Energy
-0.56%
Industrials
-1.01%
Utilities
-1.26%
Technology
-2.57%
Top Movers
CRWD
CRWD
+10.22%
COIN
COIN
+8.93%
META
META
+8.81%
PLTR
PLTR
+7.77%
NOW
NOW
+6.57%
LRCX
LRCX
-9.71%
INTC
INTC
-9.03%
MRVL
MRVL
-8.67%
CAT
CAT
-6.90%
SMCI
SMCI
-5.73%
Scan Output
Full Breakout Table
Composite score combines relative strength, base quality, trend structure, and stage confirmation.
# Ticker Name Sector Score RS Base Trend Stage 2 Price 52W High vs High Avg Vol Vol/Avg
1 ARWR ★ 3d ARWR Unknown
82.5
100.0 50.0 100.0 ✓ $80.44 $82.00 -1.9% 2.1M 2.65x
2 AMAT ★ 9d AMAT Unknown
80.9
100.0 45.6 100.0 ✓ $650.91 $723.00 -10.0% 9.5M 1.91x
3 GLW ★ 3d GLW Unknown
79.0
100.0 39.9 100.0 ✓ $220.63 $255.69 -13.7% 15.4M 1.80x
4 SANM SANM Unknown
77.9
100.0 36.9 100.0 ✓ $246.39 $282.72 -12.9% 1.3M 1.74x
5 MRCY MRCY Unknown
76.3
97.8 34.8 100.0 ✓ $123.05 $123.05 +0.0% 708K 1.70x
6 CAT ★ 3d CAT Unknown
74.1
85.7 42.3 100.0 ✓ $991.41 $1064.90 -6.9% 3.1M 1.85x
7 LRCX LRCX Unknown
74.1
100.0 26.1 100.0 ✓ $391.26 $433.33 -9.7% 11.3M 1.52x
8 AHR AHR Unknown
74.1
57.5 74.6 100.0 ✓ $53.65 $53.65 +0.0% 3.3M 2.65x
9 VICR VICR Unknown
73.9
100.0 25.4 100.0 ✓ $350.21 $379.78 -7.8% 943K 1.51x
10 KLAC KLAC Unknown
73.0
100.0 22.8 100.0 ✓ $266.19 $301.71 -11.8% 12.5M 1.46x
11 DY DY Unknown
72.3
74.6 50.0 100.0 ✓ $470.51 $535.20 -12.1% 580K 2.18x
12 GTLS GTLS Unknown
72.0
47.6 79.9 100.0 ✓ $208.68 $208.98 -0.1% 1.2M 1.64x
13 CRS CRS Unknown
71.2
87.9 31.4 100.0 ✓ $610.16 $616.84 -1.1% 775K 1.63x
14 AAL ★ 4d AAL Unknown
70.5
82.4 35.9 100.0 ✓ $18.15 $18.15 +0.0% 94.6M 1.72x
15 HWM HWM Unknown
70.4
57.0 64.5 100.0 ✓ $267.41 $283.23 -5.6% 3.0M 2.25x